2.20 Sandown: 'It's his Gold Cup' - who has pinpointed the Scilly Isles as his major target?

The Scilly Isles has bucked the trend in recent years. In the late-2000s it was seen as one of the weakest Grade 1s in Britain. More than a decade on, we hear a lot about the bloated Pattern and the many opportunities it provides for the best horses to avoid each other, yet the Scilly Isles has moved out of the relegation zone.

Irish runners in the race, like this year's likely favourite Gerri Colombe, tend to treat the race as overspill from Sunday's Ladbrokes Novice Chase at Leopardstown. However, on Racing Post Ratings' ten-year averages for the winning performance, the Scilly Isles is just 1lb behind. This is no soft option.

Where you can see evidence of there being too much choice is in the field size. This year's total of five is typical for a modern Scilly Isles. Moreover, of the 13 British-trained novice chasers to have achieved an RPR of 145 or higher this season around 2m4f, only three turn up in this race.

One of them has achieved the same as Gerri Colombe, according to ratings, although you would struggle to guess which from the betting. Thunder Rock took exceptionally well to fences on his first two runs and may well have finished in front of Monmiral in the Dipper on New Year's Day had his slick, low-margin jumping not met occasional resistance from Cheltenham's imposing fences. His attacking technique is much better suited to Sandown.

Nicky Henderson is the most successful trainer in the race and he runs just one this year, Balco Coastal. That in itself could be deemed significant as his best-performing novice at around this trip this season has been Bold Endeavour. 

Balco Coastal was an impressive winner of a traditionally strong novice handicap on Boxing Day at Kempton. Note, though, that runner-up Solo was beaten similarly handsomely by Thunder Rock in another handicap the time before and Thunder Rock had run off a much higher mark (142 versus 133 for Balco Coastal at Kempton).

Balco Coastal: impressive on Boxing Day at KemptonCredit: Edward Whitaker

Something could also be read into Paul Nicholls selecting Monmiral for this race as he trains four of the 13 novices alluded to earlier. Yet the others can be ruled out one by one: Solo has been well beaten by two of these horses already; McFabulous holds a good record at Kempton and could go for the Pendil, a race Nicholls farms, back there in three weeks; and Stage Star won at Cheltenham last Saturday.

Monmiral, who has been second to Britain's two highest-achieving novice chasers this season (Jonbon and The Real Whacker) on his two chase runs, therefore looks the natural fit.

It was historically a tough task for there to be loads of depth to this year's Scilly Isles. In terms of strength, this field has about as much as could have been hoped for and this looks an up-to-scratch renewal. Gerri Colombe adds to that, but punters should not think  he is stooping to conquer.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Gerri Colombe bids to justify favouritism

Irish-trained runners in this £80,000 Grade 1 have been a relative rarity. However, the Willie Mullins-trained Gitane Du Berlais was successful in 2015, and Gordon Elliott is responsible for the likely warm favourite Gerri Colombe this time.

Unbeaten in seven starts, including a point to point, the seven-year-old gained by far his biggest success last time out when landing the Grade 1 Faugheen Novice Chase at Limerick on Boxing Day.

He appears to be improving at a rapid rate, but the one possible question mark is the drying ground at Sandown. No rain is forecast and the chase course invariably rides much quicker than the hurdles track.

Six of Gerri Colombe’s victories have been achieved with soft or heavy or a combination of both in the official going description, and Elliott is on record as saying he wouldn’t like the ground “very quick”.

'The stiff finish at Sandown should suit him' - Murphy 

Thunder Rock, winner of seven of his 11 races under Rules, is reported in top shape by trainer Olly Murphy for what he calls “his Gold Cup”.

The seven-year-old has progressed well since switched to fences, winning novice handicaps at Uttoxeter and Ascot before finishing third to The Real Whacker in Cheltenham’s Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase on New Year’s Day.

Monmiral, who reopposes at Sandown, was only a head in front of him that day, and the pair meet again on the same terms.

Olly Murphy: "I’ve trained him for the race"Credit: Edward Whitaker

Murphy was pleased with Thunder Rock’s finishing position, particularly in view of the fact that a series of minor errors through the race left him with plenty to do in the straight.

“Not a lot went right for him at Cheltenham,” Murphy said. “He came home strongly that day and the stiff finish at Sandown should suit him.

“I’ve trained him for the race. It’s his Gold Cup and it will be interesting to see how he fares.”

What they say

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Balco Coastal
I hope he’s a Grade 1 horse, but we’ll find out. He was a smart hurdler and won really nicely over fences at Kempton over Christmas. I think this race should suit him well, but it is a step up. That said, it’s definitely worth a shot.

Ben Pauling, trainer of Bowtogreatness
He's a horse I've always held in high regard and I don't think we've seen the best of him by a country mile this season. He wasn't quite fit first time out and he needed it again after the frost next time. I wasn't prepared to lose his novice status in a run-of-the-mill race and I always hoped he'd be good enough to feature in top-class novices.

Gordon Elliott, trainer of Gerri Colombe
We've always liked him and knew we wouldn't see the best of him until he went over fences. He's a very sound jumper, touch wood, and did what we were hoping he would do in the Grade 1 at Limerick over Christmas. Sandown should suit him and we thought this was the right place to come with him. He seems to be in great form at home and we're looking forward to seeing how he gets on.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Monmiral
He's in great shape and has gained experience from running two really good races, finishing second to Jonbon and second to The Real Whacker, who got the run of the race. He stayed on strongly last time and I'd say he's got a lovely chance.
Reporting by Richard Birch

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