1.20 Cheltenham: key quotes and analysis for huge Energumene v Edwardstone clash

The market is sending a subtle clue as to how the switch of venue from Ascot to Cheltenham might affect the Clarence House Chase. Post-declarations last week, before Ascot's meeting was lost to frozen ground, Energumene was priced at 4-9, Edwardstone was 7-4. Exactly a week later they were 8-15 and 2-1.

Both have seen their odds lengthen, which reflects the different level of opposition. A total of six horses have been declared at Cheltenham, compared with just three at Ascot. Yet while Energumene's chances work out as having decreased by less than six per cent, Edwardstone's have dropped by more than eight.

There could be many reasons for this, including variance. But the stats agree with the message: Edwardstone would have had a slightly better chance of beating the Champion Chase winner at Ascot than he will do here.

This has nothing to do with the specifics of the two horses, both of whom are demonstrably strong at Cheltenham, and everything to do with the two tracks. In soft-ground chases around two miles at Cheltenham, hold-up horses like Edwardstone struggle more than in similar races at Ascot.

Edwardstone was not a committed hold-up horse in his novice season over fences but has been ridden with notable patience on both starts this season. Energumene used to be an out-and-out front-runner, but Paul Townend changed things up in last year's Champion Chase and it is probably best to treat the champion as a prominent racer these days. The stats are therefore in his favour.

These differences are admittedly quite marginal and their effect is largely, if not wholly, covered by the market. But the data reveals something else, something that suggests the big two could face a much stronger threat here than at Ascot.

Breaking down running styles further, treating leaders as a separate entity to all horses who race in the first half of the field, shows a much bigger difference between Ascot and Cheltenham under these sorts of conditions. While at Ascot front-runners perform only slightly better than others in the front rank, at Cheltenham they are the best performers by clear water.

A horse who leads in a soft-ground, two-mile chase at Cheltenham more than doubles its chances of winning in comparison with the average runner. There have been nine front-running winners in such races since 2010, when going by starting prices you would have predicted less than five (assuming, for instance, an even-money shot to be 0.5 expected winners).

For that reason, supplementary entry Editeur Du Gite is not just a highly rated addition to the Clarence House field. He is a legitimate danger, as his enthusiastic, bold-jumping style has taken him from top handicaps like the Red Rum and two big early-season pots here in 2021, to the cusp of championship standard when he made all to win the Desert Orchid at Kempton last time.

It is expected that both Energumene and Amarillo Sky, another frequent leader, will allow Editeur Du Gite's rider Niall Houlihan to stride on. Townend in particular may choose to focus on Edwardstone and Tom Cannon, rather like he did with Shishkin in the Champion Chase. 

Townend would be within his rights. The rearranged Clarence House is still rightly billed as a pre-festival meeting of the two best two-miler chasers around. But there is a tactical element that was missing from Ascot. A more biased course, and a more serious rival with a history of stacking those biases in his favour, makes for a betting heat that is not quite as straightforward as choosing your favourite from the big two.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Energumene v Edwardstone another clash to savour

The Energumene v Shishkin head-to-head in this race 12 months ago proved an epic encounter.

Energumene appeared to have the race in safe keeping when two lengths clear at the final fence, but he was unable to fend off the late lunge of Shishkin, who got up in the final strides to beat him by a length.

One year later – and on the back of three wins since – Energumene returns to defend his crown but now faces another huge challenge from the rapidly progressive Edwardstone.

Energumene was defeated by Shishkin in an epic Clarence House last yearCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

The Willie Mullins raider’s three victories since the Clarence House include the Queen Mother Champion Chase and he looked on very good terms with himself when justifying odds of 1-9 on his seasonal reappearance at Cork last month.

He is a nine-year-old but is extremely lightly raced for a chaser of his age with only 12 runs behind him. As such, it is by no means impossible the best is yet to come.

However, with Cheltenham just over six weeks away, plenty of ante-post punters are attempting to pick holes in Energumene’s form. It’s that time of the year when the very best come under even closer scrutiny.

Critics will point out that last year’s Champion Chase rather fell apart after Shishkin was pulled up, while Chacun Pour Soi, who went down by eight and a half lengths behind Energumene at Punchestown, has been well beaten in his two starts this season.

The Mullins camp, though, have been delighted with Energumene's preparations for the delayed Grade 1, although they are respectful of the threat posed by Edwardstone.

Assistant trainer Patrick Mullins said: "He travelled over well. Imran Haider, his groom, is very happy with him. We're delighted with his work at home and looking forward to a big run. 

"We have to be wary of Edwardstone, whose Tingle Creek form is very strong, and we should be set up for a great race."

'Let's take on the champion' – King

Edwardstone’s emergence as a serious threat to Energumene’s dominance of the two-mile chasing division was encapsulated by his brilliant success in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown.

The manner in which he put nine lengths between himself and a peak-form Greaneteen was that of a champion awaiting his coronation and his Kempton blip – when he unseated Tom Cannon at the fifth – does not concern trainer Alan King, who is looking forward to the showdown with Energumene.

“The switch from Ascot to Cheltenham is no issue and nor is the delay of a week,” King said. “He remains in fine form at home.

Edwardstone: emphatic winner of the Tingle Creek last timeCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

“Of course, Energumene has been rerouted as well and he’ll be just as hard to beat this weekend as he would have been last – he’s a top-class two-mile chaser.

“However, I'm focused on my own horse and just grateful that we've been granted a second crack at this race.

“Edwardstone likes to be kept busy – he ran seven times last season and won five of them – and I'm looking forward to taking on the champion.”

What they say

Gary Moore, trainer of Editeur Du Gite
In my mind he's running for place money. He's now rated 160 and we’ll have to see whether that's justified. Some would say his win at Kempton over Christmas was lucky or fluky. We’ll know more after this race.

Venetia Williams, trainer of Funambule Sivola
It’s a tough contest, as you would expect. He’s not the biggest of horses to be carrying top weight in a handicap. Hopefully he can pick up some place money.
Reporting by Catherine Macrae

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