Women's US Open semi-final predictions, odds and tennis betting tips: Home ace Navarro can push Sabalenka close

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Where to watch the US Open in the UK

Live on Sky Sports Tennis, from midnight Thursday

Best bets for Thursday's US Open women's semi-finals

Emma Navarro to win at least a set vs Aryna Sabalenka
2pts 10-11 bet365

Jessica Pegula to beat Karolina Muchova
2pts 8-13 Betfair, Hills

Enhanced Odds

4/5

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Emma Navarro vs Aryna Sabalenka predictions

Aryna Sabalenka has lived up to her billing as pre-tournament US Open favourite but the women’s world number two may face her toughest challenge yet in her semi-final showdown with American ace Emma Navarro.

Sabalenka arrived in New York following title success in Cincinnati, where her list of scalps included world number one Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula, and she has built on that, dropping only one set in her five US Open victories.

That means the Belarusian has won ten matches in a row and, having claimed back-to-back Australian Open titles as well as finishing runner-up to Coco Gauff in last season’s US Open final, she is bidding to reach a fourth straight hard-court major final.

However, in Navarro, Sabalenka faces an opponent who is on a steep upward trajectory and she will be well aware that she also has a passionate home crowd on Arthur Ashe Stadium to contend with.

Sabalenka was unable to handle that situation in last season’s final with American number one Gauff, letting a one-set lead slip, and there is the prospect of getting embroiled in a similar scenario.

When under pressure, the Belarusian can rack up double faults and unforced errors and Navarro will aim to keep close tabs on her and create some frustration.

Navarro dumped out defending champion Gauff in the fourth round before overcoming the rejuvenated Paula Badosa 6-2 7-5 in the quarter-final.

Those wins read especially well and she has the movement, precision and power to cause problems for the second seed, who was defeated 6-3 3-6 6-2 at Indian Wells in their only previous hard-court encounter in March.

Home-court advantage is a big advantage for  Americans at Flushing Meadows and Navarro is in career-best form so she looks good value to get at least a set on the board.

Jessica Pegula v Karolina Muchova predictions

Karolina Muchova has reached her second consecutive US Open semi-final, but having lost in straight sets to Gauff last season, she may fall victim at the same stage to another American in Jessica Pegula.

Both players have reached the final four without dropping a set but there’s more substance to the form of Pegula, who has outclassed rising star Diana Shnaider and world number one Iga Swiatek in her last two matches.

The sixth seed’s only defeat in her last 15 outings came against Sabalenka in the Cincinnati final last month, when she beat Muchova 5-7 6-4 6-2 en route to the decider.

Pegula may be appearing in her first Grand Slam semi-final but, with the help of a vocal home crowd, she can go one step further and tee up a shot at major glory.

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