US Open women's final predictions, odds and tennis betting tips: Pegula may come alive more in set two

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Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka predictions

There's a totally deserving line-up in this year's US Open women's singles final with pre-tournament title favourite Aryna Sabalenka taking on Jessica Pegula, who has taken her game to a new level this season.

Sabalenka, runner-up to Coco Gauff at Flushing Meadows last year, bids to go one better and claim a second hard-court Grand Slam singles crown of the season following her successful title defence at the Australian Open in January.

Pegula, who is seeded sixth in this year's New York City major, won the biggest title of her career in the WTA 1000 tournament in Toronto last month then found Sabalenka too good in the final of the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati a week later.

The 26-year-old second seed beat the Buffalo native 6-3 7-5 in that Ohio final to stretch her personal series lead to 5-2.

Take away Sabalenka's three clay-court wins over Pegula between 2020 and 2022 and their series stands at 2-2, however, and all of those meetings came on hard-courts.

But while Pegula, who defeated Karolina Muchova 1-6 6-4 6-2 in the last four, deserves much praise for toughening up her act on court in 2024, she only just pulled through to the title match after a blistering start from her Czech opponent.

Of course, it was huge for Pegula to make the semis of a Slam for the first time, especially in her home state let alone her homeland, and it will be an even bigger deal playing in her maiden major final at Flushing Meadows.

Sabalenka, one of the best learners among the current crop of players, tends not to get overawed by the big occasion in general.

And so with the possibility that Pegula may need time to settle early on, which was the case in her semi-final when only 36 per cent of her first-serve points in the opening set were winners, it's feasible that the opening set of the title match may not last that long.

Pegula, 30, may be more tuned in come the second set, so with likelier victor Sabalenka priced on the short side to win the match, punters are pointed to an interest on set two containing more games than set one.

A straight-sets victory can be considered for Sabalenka, who fired down eight aces in seeing off Emma Navarro 6-3 7-6 in her semi-final. But even the world number twomay not be any harder for Pegula to battle back against than Muchova was in the last four.

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