Olympic men's final predictions: Tennis betting tips for Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz

Where to watch

Live on BBC, RTE, Eurosport & Discovery+, from 1pm Sunday

Best bet

Over 0.5 tiebreaks in Novak Djokovic v Carlos Alcaraz
1pt 13-8 bet365

Advised outright pre-tournament by Liam Flin

Carlos Alcaraz to win gold in Olympic men's singles
3pts 11-8 Paddy Power

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Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz predictions

In many ways Sunday's Olympics men's singles final is the most important match of Novak Djokovic's majestic career.

The brilliant Serb has achieved everything else – a modern record 24 Grand Slam singles titles featuring ten Australian Open triumphs, seven Wimbledon wins, four US Open victories and three French Open crowns.

Andy Murray, a two-time Olympic gold medallist, is viewed as Britain's greatest sportsman by some with his three major singles titles, two of which came at Wimbledon. So how good then is Djokovic compared to Scotland's finest?

Djokovic won bronze in Beijing in the 2008 Olympics, the year Rafael Nadal won singles gold. Roger Federer, the other member of tennis's biggest ever three, managed to win gold only in doubles that year with his Swiss partner Stan Wawrinka.

Djokovic has already pushed the sport on to a new level since Nadal and Federer were the big two. But while the chance to make further history is within reach for Djokovic, winning that one match that stands between his current status in the game and ultra-greatness means finding a way to overcome final opponent Carlos Alcaraz.

Spanish sensation Alcaraz has recently taken his game to a new level in order to help him win a first clay-court crown at Roland Garros, the venue for the Olympic final. And since joining the long list of his countryfolk who have lifted trophies on Court Philippe Chatrier, Alcaraz has retained the Wimbledon crown, having defeated Djokovic in straight sets in the final at the London major.

The prices were all wrong for that All England Club final, when the younger man thrashed the older player with the minimum of fuss. However, the odds available for the pair's Olympic final rumble are a lot nearer to where they should be.

The early 4-9 has gone about Alcaraz and he is now generally 2-5, while Djokovic is a 2-1 shot.

While neither player has dropped a set on their path to the final – Djokovic's run also included a victory over Nadal – something has to give.

The early 4-9 about Alcaraz was just about takeable and he is likely to frank recent form with Djokovic, but 2-5 is getting a little short considering what is on the table for the outsider.

Punters can consider taking a shade of odds-against about Alcaraz maintaining his trend and winning 2-0, but that offers little appeal with Djokovic likely to be investing absolutely everything in pursuit of winning a set, let alone two.

Handicap betting is an option – Alcaraz is asked to give up a start of 3.5 games by most layers – although punters can just about squeeze out a bet on -2.5 at a shorter price – while a total games over/under wager can also be considered.

Djokovic is unlikely to win, but punters should still factor in Alcaraz's long continuous run of success and the chance that the Serb could still make the encounter competitive.

In a difficult match to predict, it may be worth chancing the final to feature at least one tiebreak at 13-8.

OLYMPIC MEN'S SINGLES FINALS

2020 Tokyo (in 2021)

Gold Alexander Zverev Silver Karen Khachanov Bronze Pablo Carreno Busta

2016 Rio de Janeiro

Gold Andy Murray Silver Juan Martin del Potro Bronze Kei Nishikori

2012 London

Gold Andy Murray Silver Roger Federer Bronze Juan Martin del Potro

2008 Beijing

Gold Rafael Nadal Silver Fernando Gonzalez Bronze Novak Djokovic

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