French Open men's singles final predictions & tennis betting tips: Ruud may not be embarrassed

Where to watch the French Open men's singles final

Live on Eurosport 1, 2pm Sunday

Best bets

Over 34.5 games
1pt 8-13 Betfair, Paddy Power

French Open men's singles final preview 

The big story going into this year's French Open men's singles final is Novak Djokovic being on the verge of a record 23rd Grand Slam singles title, but while the super Serb is the likelier victor it may not be entirely plain sailing for the seasoned legend against improving Casper Ruud on the Roland Garros clay.

More than anyone in the sport, Djokovic has driven tennis to a new level and he fully deserves his success. The stats suggest that Roland Garros is his weakest Slam, yet a triumph for the third seed on Sunday would mean he would become the first player to win all four majors on at least three occasions - a stunning feat.

Roger Federer's career is done - the Swiss ace won 20 Slam singles crowns - and by the sound of things the sun is about to go down on Rafael Nadal's competitive time on court. The Majorcan is tied with Djokovic on 22 major singles trophies.

But there is no likelihood of Djokovic calling time on his career any time soon. While men's tennis is approaching a sea change, he's still the undisputed king of Melbourne Park, home of the Australian Open, and he will be difficult to dislodge at Wimbledon next month.

His weakest two Slams are the French and the US Opens - it's a mystery why he has won only three singles titles at New York's Flushing Meadows in a mid-late season regular-terrain tournament in which there are no excuses form-wise. But given Nadal's supremacy on clay, it's fair to say that Djokovic has pretty much maximised his performances on the slow red courts and the two-time Roland Garros hero is the rightful favourite on Sunday.

Whether or not he should be a best price of 2-9 to defeat fourth seed Ruud is questionable, though. Djokovic did a professional job on Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals, constraining the Spaniard's natural tendency to let rip until the 20-year-old sustained an injury early in the third set of their 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1 tussle.

But with Ruud, 24, a more experienced performer than Carlitos, it's just possible that Djokovic may find the Norwegian a tougher opponent to boss around. Ruud, advised each-way before the tournament started at 16-1 by Racing Post Sport's Aaron Ashley, is in fine form in his own right. He already saves his best for the Grand Slams and he will have learned a great deal from his 6-3 6-3 6-0 mauling at the hands of Nadal in last year's Paris title match.

Djokovic, who has dropped sets in his last two matches in Paris, has won all four of his previous meetings with Ruud in straight sets and two of those were on clay in Rome, in 2020 and 2022. Few players have enjoyed the Foro Italico more than Belgrade's finest, though, and Ruud looks a more complete performer this year than he was in previous campaigns.

With all that in mind, there's a case to be made for backing Ruud to win at least a set - he's 8-13 with Coral and Ladbrokes to do so - but slight preference is for getting long of total games at 34.5. That market probably requires the outsider to win a set, but it can be reached with three close sets and a couple of tiebreaks.

In the last fortnight Ruud has dropped sets against qualifier Giulio Zeppieri, Zhizhen Zhang and Holger Rune, but there's definitely a case for thinking that the Oslo native, son of former ATP player Christian Ruud, is a superior performer on clay to Karen Khachanov, who took Djokovic to four sets in their quarter-final clash on Tuesday.

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport