Steve Palmer's BMW PGA Championship predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the BMW PGA Championship at the West Course on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 9am on Thursday

Best bets

Shane Lowry
4pts each-way 16-1 Betfair, Hills, Power

Matt Fitzpatrick
4pts each-way 11-1 general

Marcus Kinhult
1pt each-way 150-1 general

Sean Crocker
1pt each-way 150-1 Betfred, Hills

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Rory McIlroy is the centre of attention at Wentworth this week, looking to follow up a third FedEx Cup success with a second BMW PGA Championship title, having triumphed on the West Course eight years ago.

McIlroy's mood was a peculiar one when he won at Wentworth in 2014 - he had just split from fiancee Caroline Wozniacki to become a single man again and played with freedom in the PGA. There may be less of a spring in his step this time, with golfing politics weighing heavily on his shoulders.

As one of the most outspoken PGA Tour cheerleaders, McIlroy has admitted he hates the fact LIV Golf players are being allowed to tee up on the DP World Tour. Media demands and locker-room tensions are two reasons to avoid the short prices against McIlroy's name, but there are others, too.

McIlroy has missed the cut at Wentworth four times. It is a tight layout where there is a premium on control, course-management and patience, so the naturally attacking Northern Irishman can feel uncomfortable.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Shane Lowry 16-1

Early money has come for regular Wentworth contender Shane Lowry and it is no surprise that punters are throwing their support behind the popular Irishman.

Lowry has been hugely consistent this year and is unfortunate to still be waiting for his first trophy of 2022. The former Open champion has posted 13 top-25 finishes in his 18 tournaments. He has missed only one cut - by a shot from the wrong side of the draw in the US Open - and has threatened victory on the PGA Tour on numerous occasions.

Lowry was a desperately unlucky runner-up in the Honda Classic in February - he got caught in some terrible weather going up the final hole - then he finished third in the Masters and the RBC Heritage.

The frustration continued after 12th place in the BMW Championship last time out - that meant Lowry was 31st in the FedEx Cup standings and one place shy of qualifying for the Tour Championship. The silver lining is that the 35-year-old has had a longer break to freshen up for one of his favourite tournaments.

Lowry adores Wentworth, having finished fourth in 2011, runner-up in 2014, sixth in 2015 and sixth in 2017. He boasts nine top-20s from 12 BMW PGA starts. There seems a fair chance that this could be the week when Lowry finally gets over the line in front on the West Course, earning overdue reward for a rock-solid 2022 campaign.

Next best bet

Matt Fitzpatrick 11-1

The US Open champion and world number 11 must command immense respect in this DP World Tour line-up. Never before has Matt Fitzpatrick enjoyed such status going into the BMW PGA Championship. Early in his career, this home gig in front of massive crowds would have been a daunting assignment for the youngster, but it holds no fear for the 28-year-old version.

Fitzpatrick is rightly full of self-belief, having produced one of the best shots in US Open history to recover from a fairway bunker and become a Major champion, and he has played well since those Brookline heroics.

Sixth place in the Scottish Open was followed by fifth spot in the FedEx St Jude Championship, and he made a decent East Lake debut last time out, ending up as the 16th-best scorer in the Tour Championship.

Fitzpatrick's game is perfectly suited to Wentworth and there is great encouragement to take from his previous spins there. He was 12th in 2017, eighth in 2018, sixth in 2020, and has returned this week as the complete package.

His maiden European Tour title came on a similarly tree-lined southern track in the 2015 British Masters at Woburn, and there seems a strong chance he puts the icing on the cake of the best season of his career with BMW PGA glory.

Other selections

Marcus Kinhult 150-1

Sean Crocker 150-1

Marcus Kinhult, like Fitzpatrick, is a typically neat and tidy player who is accurate off the tee and putts well. Wentworth is a great fit for the Swede as he proved on his debut in 2018. Kinhult's DP World Tour form figures coming into that event were MC-MC-MC-MC-63, then he opened with a 74 at Wentworth, but brilliance over the final three rounds meant a share of 12th place. He had fallen in love with the West Course.

Kinhult was tenth in the 2020 BMW PGA, and punters should ignore his missed cut last year, which came at a time when he was struggling to make a cut anywhere in the wake of epilepsy issues. A year later, his A-game appears to be returning. Third place in the Qatar Masters in March was followed by third in the Cazoo Classic in July. He has finished 23rd in his last two events.

Kinhult's lone DP World Tour victory came in England - the 2019 British Masters - and at the age of 26 the scope remains for this former amateur star to achieve big things in golf.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Sean Crocker, who appears to have lost a little focus since his breakthrough victory in the Hero Open at the end of July. The emotional success and hearty celebrations have been followed by three lacklustre efforts but a refreshing break since a missed cut at Crans allied to the stature of the BMW PGA means Crocker should get back to business this week.

Wentworth is a ball-strikers' track - the punishment for errant shots is severe - and Crocker is one of the best on the circuit from tee to green. He was 44th on his BMW PGA debut in 2020 then ninth last year, only four shots behind the winner.

Players to note

Justin Rose
Home comforts could be enough to make the former world number one a dangerman - he lives close to Wentworth and practises regularly there - but back issues meant he missed the Open and he has not played well since.

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard has a superb strike-rate in DP World Tour events and finished runner-up in his only previous Wentworth visit. An obvious threat.

Tommy Fleetwood
The Englishman has not played since the Open in the middle of July so may be lacking some sharpness but his recent Wentworth efforts have been encouraging.

Tyrrell Hatton
The 2020 Wentworth champion has found some decent form in recent weeks and will expect to be a factor on home turf.

Victor Perez
The 2020 Wentworth runner-up won the Dutch Open at the end of May and will be looking forward to his West Course return.

Matt Wallace
The Sunningdale-based Englishman knows the West Course well. A playoff defeat at Crans-sur-Sierre was followed by a missed cut in Denmark last week.

West Course course guide

Course West Course, Wentworth Club, Virginia Water, Surrey
Prize money $8m ($1,332,800 to the winner)
Length 7,267 yards
Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in the field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (3), Jon Rahm (6), Viktor Hovland (10), Matt Fitzpatrick (11), Billy Horschel (15)
Course records- 72 holes 267 Byeong Hun An (2015) 18 holes 62 Robert Karlsson (2010), Thomas Bjorn (2014), Alex Noren (2017)

Course winners taking part (strokeplay) David Howell, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Luke Donald (twice), Rory McIlroy, Chris Wood, Francesco Molinari, Danny Willett, Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel

When to bet By 6.40am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 9am on Thursday

Last week - Made In Denmark 1 O Wilson (250-1), 2 E Ferguson (55-1), 3 Kristian Krogh Johannessen (90-1), T4 M Jordan (80-1), F Laporta (150-1), R McGowan (400-1), M Southgate (125-1), T8 M Helligkilde (40-1), D Huizing (110-1), N Von Dellingshausen (350-1), J Walters (80-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The legendary Harry Colt-designed West Course at Wentworth has been the host venue for the PGA Championship since 1984 and also staged the World Match Play from 1964 to 2007. In 2019, the event moved from its usual May slot to September. The course has been extensively remodelled over recent years (a project started in 2005) by long-time Wentworth member and seven-times Match Play champion Ernie Els. Prior to the 2017 edition, every green was stripped of its turf and re-seeded with creeping bentgrass. All the putting surfaces had a sub-air system installed to make them firmer and faster. Tall trees line the fairways, many of which are doglegs, so it is a demanding driving course. The layout closes with two par-fives – the 610-yard 17th and the 523-yard 18th, a classic risk-reward hole featuring a greenside water hazard

Story of last year Laurie Canter wobbled coming home, allowing American raider Billy Horschel to sneak past for a one-shot victory

Weather forecast Pre-tournament storms have softened the terrain. Cloudy for the event, with short periods of light rain, temperatures peaking at 21C, and hardly any breeze throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge Strong driving is demanded to find the tree-lined fairways. Long-game accuracy combined with short-game wizardry is typically the ticket to success at Wentworth

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight Seven of the last 13 BMW PGAs have been won by an Englishman

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