The Oscars: Best Picture analysis and best bet for the 92nd Academy Awards

Best bet

Parasite
1pt 4-1 general

Already advised

1917
3pts 3-1 January 13

What an amazing merry-go-round the Best Picture betting on the Oscars has been, but it’s all coming up roses for Britain with World War I epic 1917 heading into Hollywood’s glitzy red-carpet night on Sunday as hot favourite.

When nominations came out in mid-January, readers were advised to take the 3-1 as the Sam Mendes masterpiece was expected to clean up at the Baftas, Britain’s Oscars, and do well at the main US warm-ups, the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild.

For once, the crystal ball was uncannily accurate and now you won’t beat 1-2. All that’s needed now is for this stunning piece of work to win.

Cast your mind back to the start of the year when all possible long-list contenders were priced up: The Irishman, all three-and-a-half hours of it, was 4-1 favourite, closely followed by Once Upon A Time in Hollywood and Marriage Story.

After the list had been trimmed to nine at the nominations stage, Quentin Tarantino’s heady mix of fact and fantasy about 60s Hollywood was promoted to head the market at around 2-1 with Marriage Story and 1917 a point longer and surprise South Korean challenger Parasite punted down to 4-1.

It looked like we were in for a real battle but now, less than a month later, they can’t give Tarantino away at 8-1, Martin Scorsese’s Irishman is forgotten at 66-1 and you can have 100-1 about Marriage Story.

Parasite, fiendishly clever in mixing family comedy with bloodbath horror, is still in there pitching and a thoroughly deserved second-favourite. It won the Palme d’Or at Cannes and 176 other awards worldwide, the two most recent at Bafta.

Are the staid members of the Academy going to buck the trend of award-winning favourites - Mendes, Joaquin Phoenix, Renee Zellweger, Brad Pitt and Laura Dern are unbackable odds-on in the other five major categories - by doing something different?

Parasite is the tenth sub-titled foreign-language movie to be Best Picture-nominated and the first from Korea. Not one has won.

Last year Mexican hope Roma, favourite for a long time, lost out to Green Book but won the Best Foreign Language consolation prize.

That looks set to be Parasite’s fate unless the Academy grasps the nettle, breaks the mould, and changes motion picture history. They are already in the doghouse for not honouring one woman director in the final nine and for not recognising enough people of colour. Londoner Cynthia Erivo, a Best Actress contender for Harriet, is the only black performer listed but has little chance against Zellweger’s stunning Judy Garland.

The delightful Little Women is up for Best Picture but it’s the seventh adaptation of a famous novel and voters are likely to prefer more original material.

The Scorsese and Tarantino marathons, 220 and 160 minutes long respectively, are good but not their best work, Joker is more a vehicle for Phoenix to display his acting chops and Ford v Ferrari (called Le Mans ‘66 over here) is spectacular even for those for whom Formula I is a turn-off but surely a makeweight at Oscar level.

That leaves JoJo Rabbit, a comedy about a Hitler Youth member who finds his mother hiding a Jewish woman, as the most original finalist, and Marriage Story, a solid piece of divorce-court film-making in the mould of 1980 Oscar winner Kramer vs Kramer.

Outsiders rarely win Best Picture although Brokeback Mountain got clobbered at 1-7 by Crash in 2006, and the way the betting has gone clearly points to 1917 and Parasite as the two to consider.

You have to go back to Slumdog Millionaire in 2009 to find a Best Picture winner without any cast member being put up for an individual Oscar. But 1917 and Parasite, both superbly cast, have not got a runner in any of the four acting categories.

For those who got the 3-1 or better about 1917, it’s worth saving on Parasite at 9-2 as the betting should be closer between them. But the British film is the most likely winner.

Read every day for no-nonsense previews and expert sports betting tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport