Wipeout on the cards for Fine Gael and contagion will impact Fianna Fail

Election overview

Saturday's Irish general election is set to bring a wipeout for Fine Gael. While it may take some time for a government to be formed, the one certainty is that Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin will become Taoiseach.

Despite nine years of significant economic recovery the Fine Gael-led government has ended up being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Fine Gael has come up against a zeitgeist for change, and an expression of what I would call 'aspirational anger' from large numbers of people who can't afford to buy a house, are struggling with high rents and childcare costs and may have a difficult commute to work.

They don't feel the recovery. Nor do people in yellow-pack jobs.

Fine Gael won 76 seats in 2011. They were reduced to 50 in 2016, and go into this election with 45. I'm predicting a vote-share on or below 22 per cent. On that figure there is no constituency where they can retain two seats.

In a number of the 39 constituencies they could fail to win a seat, notably Roscommon, Tipperary, Dublin North West, Sligo-Leitrim and Kildare North. It could get worse. For example, they are under pressure in Louth.

Fine Gael faces the prospect of high-profile casualties. Those vulnerable include the Minister for Employment Affairs & Social Protection Regina Doherty in Meath East, and Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy in Dublin Bay South.

Housing minister Eoghan Murphy faces a challenge to retain his seatCredit: Damien Eagers / INM

The main dynamic in Irish politics historically is that when one or other of the main parties implodes, the other is the beneficiary, such was the case when Fine Gael came to power in 2011.

So, at the outset of this campaign there was a clear prognosis that Fianna Fail was set fair, with the likelihood of winning 60 seats or more. However, we have witnessed factors which have altered the dynamics.

Contagion damage

First, the 'new politics' in which Fianna Fail provided a confidence-and-supply arrangement means that many disaffected voters refer to a FFG situation, lumping the two traditional rivals together as one. This suggests that Fianna Fail has suffered contagion damage by propping up the government.

You also have to take into account that the country has not entirely suffered from amnesia. Fianna Fail has not escaped culpability for the recession.

The FFG narrative has gained traction in a Sinn Fein surge which has dramatically changed the complexion of the campaign.

Just a short while ago the outlook did not look good for Sinn Fein after a series of disastrous electoral reverses, a drastic slip to 6 per cent for its candidate in the 2018 presidential race, a drop from 14 per cent to a nine per cent vote share and the loss of 59 councillors in the 2019 local elections, and the loss of two of its three MEPs in the European elections.

The party has been beset by rows, expulsions and splits, and has spent a lot of time and energy putting out bushfires. They lost two TDs, Peadar Tobin and Carol Nolan, as a result of the abortion referendum. Three of its most high-profile figures, Gerry Adams, Caoimhghin O'Caolain and Martin Ferris, have retired. They also suffered the unexpected departure of Jonathan O'Brien in Cork.

Before this election they were focused on de-selecting candidates in a bid to protect their 23 seats, and they have ended up running just 42 candidates, including some who are little known.

Changing the narrative

Mary Lou McDonald has changed the narrative. Her party has thrown into the mix the biggest giveaway manifesto since Jack Lynch came into power for Fianna Fail in 1977, with promises of huge tax cuts and astronomical spending.

Judging by the polls, the public has fallen for it hook, line and sinker. From a position where a loss of seats looked inevitable they are set to make gains. How many is the big question.

Mary Lou McDonald's Sinn Fein have promised huge tax cuts and astronomical spendingCredit: Justin Farrelly +353871385224

The downside from the Sinn Fein point of view is that they have not run enough candidates to turn an increased vote share into seats. You can see this as a factor in constituencies such as Dublin South West and Dublin South West. Still, if it can be sustained until polling day they could win 28 to 30 seats.

The Green Party put up a strong performance in the European elections, and there is a potent surge in their favour in urban areas, especially in Dublin, where they are drawing support from disgruntled Fine Gael voters. The likes of Roderic O'Gorman in Dublin West, Patrick Costello in Dublin South Central, and Ossian Smyth in Dun Laoghaire are set to win seats. Joe O'Brien will hold the Fingal seat he won in a by election in November. I estimate that they could end up with ten TDs in all.

On the left, Labour, the Social Democrats, Solidarity/People Before Profit, as well as some Independents, are being cannibalised by Sinn Fein. I reckon Labour will return with five or six seats.

Final analysis

As far as the composition of the government is concerned, it's definitely a case of watching your bets to be sure of what permutation you're wagering on.

Paddy Power's quotes show how many theoretical possibilities are involved. They have 26 options, ranging from a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein coalition at 7-2 to the wildly improbable Fine Gael-Sinn Fein/Green/Labour at 100-1.

My thinking is that FF and the Greens could get 70 seats between them. If Labour have five or six, then it's only a small stretch for a government to be formed with the help of Independents. There are a few Fianna Fail gene-pool Independents around who will have no difficulty doing a deal, the Healy-Raes and Mattie McGrath among them.

There will be people in Fianna Fail prepared to go into coalition with Sinn Fein, but Micheal Martin has an avowed position on that and I can't see it changing.

There is one other possibility. If the numbers fall a certain way and make it impossible for Martin to cobble together an arrangement with smaller parties and Independents, we could experience a period of sustained political paralysis. At that stage there might be no option other than the ultimate "grand coalition" between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.

After nine years out of government, and this being Martin's last chance, Fianna Fail would have to settle for it. With six or seven ministries on the line the Fine Gael apparatchiks would be likely to go for it too.

Opinion polls

We should be circumspect about opinion polls. These are basically brand indicators, and do not take into account the local factors often decisive in the final analysis. The most important thing to understand is that there are 39 completely separate battles going on. You have to look at the ground war to try to predict the likely outcome of any Irish general election.

A lot of final seats will be allocated on the basis of transfers which are desperately hard to predict. Transfer patterns often result from local factors which you simply cannot extrapolate from poll figures.

Looking at the likely destination of the final seats in five-seater constituencies you can't afford to be dogmatic. Wicklow and Louth are two that look particularly hard to call.

One another general point about the polls historically is that they have tended to overestimate support for Sinn Fein and underestimate support for Fianna Fail.

Market value

Most of the value in the markets has long gone. The best bet of the entire campaign was right at the start when Fianna Fail were 8-11 to win most seats.

The best remaining option also involves Fianna Fail's performance. Over 52.5 seats at 5-6. I'm predicting 58 seats for them.

The market for the individual candidate with most first-preference votes is worth a look since beyond the top two in the market, Michael Healy-Rae (5-6) and Pearse Doherty (2-1), it's 9-1 bar with Fine Gael's Mayo TD Michael Ring at that price, followed by three Sinn Fein candidates who are double-figure odds, Brian Stanley, Mary Lou McDonald and Sean Crowe. It's a match on paper, and I expect Michael Healy-Rae to come out on top.

When it comes to the individual constituency markets it's difficult to spot any value. Many potential TDs are priced at around 1-4 now having been available at up to 5-2 earlier in the campaign.

If I had to pick a few, I would be looking at the following, not certainties by any means but they should be in the hunt: Eamon Scanlon, FF Sligo- Leitrim, 4-6; Tony Fitzgerald, FF Cork North Central 4-7; Gino Kenny, SPBP Dublin Mid West 13-8; Brid Smith, SPBP Dublin South Central 4-5; Damien English, FG Meath West 4-6; Darren O'Rourke, SF Meath East 4-7; Vincent Martin, GP Kildare North 11-10; Eugene Murphy FF Roscommon 4-7.

Racing Post view - Alan Sweetman's picks

Shane Ross

For much of the current Dail term Shane Ross, Minister for Transport, Tourism & Sport and a key figure in the Independent Alliance, has been under enormous political pressure. Many commentators have criticised his involvement in issues outside his own brief.

His habit of being photographed at sporting events and celebrations has earned derision. However, he has regained a lot of lost ground by helping to resolve the FAI controversy.

He is an assiduous constituency worker in an affluent area of Dublin where his English public-school accent is not a significant disadvantage. At even-money he's a fair bet to see off a challenge by Fianna Fail's Shay Brennan.

Catherine Connolly

Independent TD Catherine Connolly has a real fight on her hands in order to hold her seat in the Galway West constituency. She is eighth in the betting in the five-seat constituency in which Eamon O'Cuiv will top the poll for Fianna Fail.

Independent Noel Grealish has a high profile, Fine Gael has two well-established candidates, and there will be a hectic battle for the last few seats, with Social Democrat hopeful Niall O'Tuathail and the Green Party's Pauline O'Reilly also in contention.

However, Connolly, a strong advocate for the underprivileged, enjoyed a good outing on RTE's Prime Time during the campaign and could pick up enough transfers to edge back into the Dail. 7-4 is not a bad price.

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