US Election 2024: odds, date, best bets and predictions as America prepares to go to the polls

Best bets for the 2024 US presidential election: Trump vs Harris

One of the most hotly contested US elections in history is finally in the home stretch.

Already certain to be one of the biggest betting events in history, the election could also feature one of the most well-supported potential outcomes of the betting year, with a flood of money making ex-president Donald Trump the 8-15 favourite to win a second term in the White House, while vice president Kamala Harris has drifted out to a general 7-4 shot.

In a race where the polls – especially those conducted in the seven key swing states – are neck and neck – have the markets moved too soon? It remains to be seen.

As America prepares to go to voting booths on Tuesday, political betting specialist William Kedjanyi takes a look at how the race to the White House is shaping up.

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When is the US election?

The US election will take place on Tuesday, November 5.

What are the odds for the US Election?

It has been a closely fought election campaign and the latest betting odds show that former President Donald Trump is the favourite to beat Kamala Harris in the polls and become President of the United States.

Here are the latest US election odds:

Odds correct at the time of publish.

Donald Trump's election prospects

Background

The former president is perhaps one of the most famous people to hold the office. He was narrowly beaten by Joe Biden in 2020 and infamously did not accept the results of that election, resulting in the unprecedented events of January 6, 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters attacked the Capitol Building in Washington DC. 

The Republican nominee has effectively been running to retake the office since and was in an advantageous position against Biden until a disastrous first presidential debate saw the incumbent eventually drop out.

While Trump has struggled to adjust to facing Harris rather than Biden, who stepped down from the presidential race in July – he fared very poorly in their only presidential debate - Trump has steadily improved his position and he is now a strong favourite in the betting markets.

Campaign

The Trump campaign has focused relentlessly on immigration and the economy – two areas which present an opportunity for him given that he’s favoured in the polling for both. 

He has also leaned into plenty of flashy PR opportunities, such as a visit to a Pennsylvania McDonald's restaurant inspired by a feud he had with Harris over whether she had previously worked there, while he appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast as part of a strategy to target young men.

Since Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Trump’s team have taken every chance possible to target male voters – especially younger ones who may not typically vote or engage with politics as much as their slightly older counterparts – and it appears to have worked.

Prospects

The politics of this election are certainly more favourable to Trump than they are to Harris. 

In 2020, Trump’s presidency had record-high disapproval ratings which Biden managed to use to his advantage in the shape of an anti-Trump coalition that racked up record voting numbers, but still just squeezed through in the swing states.

Now he is able to run as a challenger against an opponent who trails in polls regarding the economy, immigration and foreign policy (according to Gallup), and has less control over their voter base than Trump does with his.

At the moment Trump is 0.9% behind Harris in national aggregated polls, so his prospects are much stronger than they were in 2020, assuming that he outperforms the polls in the same way once again. 

Trump’s base is rock-solid and many of his die-hard supporters have already voted according to early numbers, which is a positive signal for his chances, for all that early voting will look different this year compared to 2020 due to the pandemic’s effect on the last election.

There’s plenty for Trump and his backers to be enthusiastic about – although a note of caution is needed. 

The vast majority of polls are within the margin of error either way, including polls in all seven swing states – and with pollsters having adjusted their methodologies, it cannot be taken for granted that Trump will outperform the projections in the way he did in the last two elections.

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Kamala Harris's election prospects

Background

A former district attorney, attorney general and senator for California, Harris ran for president in 2020 but saw her campaign fizzle out as she struggled to articulate her policy platform and ideology. 

She was chosen as Biden’s running mate, making her both the first female vice president and the first black woman to hold the office.

A future run had been talked about for Harris, but she was thrust into the limelight when Biden dropped out suddenly, gaining the nomination almost unopposed as the Democratic Party’s establishment rolled in behind her.

Campaign

The Democratic campaign was turned upside down when Biden dropped out after a disastrous presidential debate. 

Harris, who enjoyed an excellent Democratic National Convention (DNC) and a first presidential debate win, has made reproductive rights a key platform of her bid for the White House – as all Democrats have done after the Republican Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, the half-century old precedent guaranteeing the right to an abortion, in 2022.

Harris has aggressively courted Republicans who are opposed to Trump, drawing attention to the huge number of Republican officials who left his administration, including his former chief of staff John Kelly, who said that Trump would rule as a dictator if elected again.

Prospects

Harris’s sliding lead in the national polls is a worry due to electoral college biases and Trump’s overperformance during the last two presidential elections. The momentum she had from a well-executed DNC and a comprehensive first debate win has rolled back steadily.

However, reports of her demise may be too hasty. 

With many pollsters changing methodology since the last election and many right-leaning polls anticipating a closer race in 2024 than 2020, it’s possible a swing to the right will be smaller, or non-existent.

Harris also has plenty of chances to boost the turnout of the Democratic base. Many fear a second Trump term based on how he would likely govern, with the memories of January 6 living long in the memory of many.

Roe v Wade has seen increased female turnout which has punished Republicans in many contests since 2022, and Trump’s more controversial comments can often inspire negative turnout against him.

The Democrats outperformed Republicans with late deciders in 2022 and have invested huge amounts of money into a TV ad blitz and a strong get-out-the-vote operation in key swing states which has worked consistently over the last four years.

Turnout will be hugely important, but Harris and the Democrats could use another signature event for a boost in the lead up to polling day. However, over the last month, the Republicans have had more momentum.

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2024 US presidential election predictions

Kamala Harris to win 80,000,000 or more votes
10-11 bet365 

K Harris to win 270-299 Electoral College votes
7-2 Betfair, BoyleSports, Paddy Power

D Trump to win 270-299 Electoral College votes
5-2 Hills

With so much on the line, this looks set to be an extremely tight election. 

A case can be made for both candidates, with Trump appearing to have plenty in his favour, although it’s arguable that he’s too short at 8-15 given the tightness of swing-state polling and the ignored possibility that Harris may outperform surveys.

Indeed it would be no surprise if this contest ended up being closer than both 2016 and 2020, which makes Harris look overpriced – certainly according to the models – and there could be value in backing the narrowest of electoral college victories for either candidate.

Major models from FiveThirtyEight, Silver Bulletin, The Economist, Decision Desk, The New Statesman, Race To The WH and Cook Political Report all have the election as a toss-up, making the 270-299 electoral college bands of interest for both.

One thing that seems sure is a high turnout. In an election that has been bitterly contested, extremely close in swing states and seen as vitally important by partisans on both sides, it would be no surprise to see big vote tallies.

Biden racked up 81,283,501 votes in 2020 from 51.3 per cent of the popular vote and while Harris is not polling as well, the 10-11 on offer about her winning 80,000,000 or more votes seems more than fair. 

Harris is currently averaging 49 per cent in head-to-head surveys and even if she were to lose in the electoral college, large Democratic states help her chance of a big popular vote tally.

US election 2024: how does the US electoral college work?

The US presidential election is decided by something called the electoral college. 

In this system each state awards a set number of votes to the popular vote winner of that state, based on its population. 

As an example California gets 54 electoral college votes, whilst sparsely populated states like Wyoming, Alaska and North Dakota (plus Washington DC) each get three.

In total there are 538 electoral college votes and 270 or more wins the presidency.

If there is no majority winner, the House of Representatives, the lower house of US lawmakers, votes to elect the president. This has happened only once – in 1824, when four candidates split the electoral college vote, denying any one of them a majority.

Assuming that the safe states stay with their traditional parties, Harris will win at least 225 Electoral College votes and Trump will win 219 – leaving the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada to decide the winner.

US Election 2024: when are the results announced?

Discipline is key in US elections. Reading early voting data is fraught with danger, and keeping up with announcements through election night itself is exhausting and easy to overreact to. 

Planning ahead so you know when key information is likely to be released – and therefore information to ignore – and having a good understanding of what it means in the context of both electoral college and popular votes will keep you sane and solvent.

Many will take notice of the exit polls on the night in the US – which do not work like those in the UK – and also the results as they come through overnight on Tuesday.

However, finding out the winner could take much longer than that, so in-play bettors and traders would be well advised to remember 2020’s wild market changes.

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