UK general election odds and analysis: Constituency best bets

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When is the general election?

The general election will take place on Thursday, July 4

Best bets

Boston and Skegness – Reform
11-10 general

Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion – Green double
Bristol Central 4-11 general, Brighton Pavilion 3-10 general

Surrey Heath – Lib Dem
8-11 general

Basildon & Billericay – Labour
Evs general

Chingford & Woodford Green – Conservative
10-3 general

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Boston and Skegness

No matter what happens, Reform UK have made a huge impression on this election and they look set for a successful performance in terms of votes.

Under first past the post, it remains to be seen if they can turn what looks likely to be 13 to 16 per cent of the vote into more than just Nigel Farage’s likely gain in Clacton, and perhaps Richard Tice can benefit.

Tice – the leader of Reform until Nigel Farage decided to stand – is challenging Conservative Matt Warman, who has held the seat since 2015 and has a 25,000 vote majority from 2019.

However, the many failures of the Tories since then have left even the safest seats vulnerable and Reform couldn’t have picked a better seat given how strong the Brexit vote is in this constituency.

Boston and Skegness was the highest Brexit-backing area in the UK during the 2016 referendum with 74.9 per cent of voters backing Leave. And despite issues with Brexit since then, more of its residents rejected the claim that Brits regretted Brexit than anywhere else in an UnHerd poll last year.

The race is clearly tight – multi-level regression and poststratification polls (MRPs) and projections have it as a three-way go between Labour, the Conservatives and Reform – but the national profile Reform have enjoyed during the campaign can make the difference.

Bristol Central and Brighton Pavilion

While a Labour landslide is expected, the party has lost some support on the left and that has contributed to a surge of support for the Green Party in certain areas of the country and the markets suggest they will add a second seat to their tally, with the possibility of a third in Waveney Valley.

Sian Berry can hold the traditional stronghold of Brighton Pavilion in the absence of Caroline Lucas, while a surge in city support, a strong ground game, and a progressive gap all give Carla Denyer a strong chance of upsetting shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire.

The Greens took all 14 council seats in the boundaries of Bristol Central during the local elections and look worthy favourites to unseat Labour in a two-horse race.

Surrey Heath

If the polls are to be believed, then the Lib Dems look set for an excellent election with many ex-Conservative voters who feel the party has left them after Brexit and other rightward turns, and Surrey Heath could well be another blue wall again for them.

Cabinet minister Michael Gove, the MP for Surrey Heath for 20 years, announced he would step down after the election was called and new candidate Ed McGuinness is facing a tough battle according to polls and projections.

At the 2023 local elections the Lib Dems gained the Surrey Heath council and Lib Dem candidate Al Pinkerton – a distant second last time – looks well placed to go one better with the Conservatives in disarray.

Basildon & Billericay

This constituency was thrust into the headlines when Conservative chairman Richard Holden was parachuted more than 300 miles from his former constituency, enraging local members including the party’s group leader on Basildon council, who said he would refuse to campaign for Holden.

Former MP John Baron had a 20,412 majority, but things have changed massively since then and in May’s local elections the Conservatives lost half of their seats on Basildon Council, with Labour gaining six seats.

Alex Harrison, Labour’s candidate, has been a councillor since 2021 and has been taking every opportunity to put focus on Holden’s lastminute move, and local knowledge from their recent campaign could also provide another boost.

The presence of Reform – who are on at least 20 per cent of the vote with all projections and MRPs – makes this a three-way race and Labour could take advantage.

Chingford & Woodford Green

This is one of a few seats with a notable independent presence, where the ex-Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen – suspended and removed as a candidate by the party – is now running as an Independent.

She ran veteran Tory minister Iain Duncan Smith – running once again – to 1,262 seats in 2019 and she has wasted no time in running a very active campaign that is likely to draw from Labour’s likely vote.

Just how successful she is unknown – running as an independent is always a hard task at a general election but as a local resident who’s got a larger profile than most including national coverage (and endorsements from Ronnie O’Sullivan and Jeremy Corbyn) she could put in a strong performance.

With the demographics of the seat (younger and more diverse than the national average, and now taking parts of Ilford North) moving against Reform, Duncan Smith may be able to take advantage of a fractured vote and he looks too big at the prices.

Deposit and bet £10 to get £60 in betting bonuses with William Hill

We’ve already mentioned that William Hill are offering new customers up to £60 in bonuses when they bet £10 on the general election.

Here is how you can claim this £60 William Hill offer when you place a qualifying bet on the general election.

Head over to William Hill through this link and click 'Join Here' to sign up for a new account.
Deposit £10 to unlock £20 in Vegas free bets on selected games.
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William Hill betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new player promotion before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of this William Hill betting offer and what's expected of you as a new player. This promotion gives you £60 in total bonuses (£20 in Vegas free bets/£40 in sports free bets). T&Cs apply, including the following:

The Promotion runs from 00:01:00 (UK time) on Wednesday 13th April 2022 until otherwise cancelled by us in accordance with these Terms (the “Promotion Period”).
The Promotion is only available to new customers in the United Kingdom in pound sterling that pass all necessary verification checks.
If you take part in the Promotion, you will not be eligible for any other new customer promotion.
The Promotion is only available to customers accessing services through our website.
It is not available in shop, through our tele betting service or through our mobile app.
This Promotion is not available to new accounts where funds are paid into by PayPal, Neosurf, Paysafe, Nuvei Apple Pay, NETELLER, Skrill, ecoPayz, Kalibra/Postpay or William Hill PLUS Card.
The maximum amount of Free Bets is £60. The Free Bets are awarded as follows: a £20 Vegas Bonus (credited as 1 x £20 denominations into your account subject to the terms below), and a further £40 of Sports Bonus (credited as 4 x £10 denominations into your account subject to the terms below).
The Free Bets are non-refundable and cannot be withdrawn as cash or partially redeemed.
The full value of each Free Bet should be redeemed in one stake.
Any portion of the Free Bets that are not staked will be voided.
A Free Bet can only be used once.
If you cash in your bet your stake will no longer constitute a qualifying stake for participation in this Promotion.
Visit William Hill for further T&Cs.
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William Kedjanyi

Published on 2 July 2024inPolitics