Next Tory leader odds: Johnson braced for further by-election blows

Boris Johnson is soldiering on after weathering the storms of the Sue Gray report into Partygate and the recent vote of confidence among Conservative Party MPs. But another choppy spell could be on the horizon with next Thursday's by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton offering members of the public a chance to make their voice heard.

Further bad news could be on the way for the Prime Minister, because Labour are 1-100 favourites to win back Wakefield, which they lost to the Conservatives at the 2019 general election.

Wakefield, held by a slender 3,358 majority, is traditionally a Labour seat and one which they simply have to target if they have serious hopes of returning to power. Its recovery would at least signal the start of a rebuilding the 'red wall' of northern constituencies which was smashed to pieces in 2019.

The Conservatives are also braced for the potential loss of Tiverton and Honiton, where the Liberal Democrats 1-4 to win the seat and the Conservatives a 10-3 chance.

And defeat in Devon would represent a bigger blow to Johnson because the constituency has been in Conservative hands since its formation in 1997.

Neil Parish retained the seat in 2019 with a 24,238 majority, while the Liberal Democrat candidate John Timperley finished third on just 15 per cent of the vote.

However, the Liberal Democrats won North Shropshire from the Conservatives last December – securing the seat on a 34 per cent swing – and they fancy their chances of another notable by-election success.

Another pair of Conservative by-election defeats would not have a huge impact on the Parliamentary arithmetic, but it would turn the heat up on Johnson, who is 5-4 with Ladbrokes to lead his party into the next general election and 8-13 not to.

Johnson was dealt more bad news on Wednesday when his former ethics advisor Lord Geidt announced his resignation.

If Johnson were to depart the battle to replace him would be wide open with backbencher Jeremy Hunt, Minister of State for Trade Policy Penny Mordaunt, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak among the main contenders.

Hunt and Mordaunt are the 6-1 joint-favourites, with Truss and Sunak priced up at 7-1 and 9-1.

Labour's task is to take advantage of Conservative infighting but they are still having problems reconnecting to their core voter base.

Sir Keir Starmer's party are 11-10 to win the most seats at the next general election, while the Conservatives are 5-6 favourites.

Overall majorities for the Conservatives and Labour can be backed at 11-4 and 7-2 and a hung Parliament is an 8-11 shot, perhaps reflecting the ongoing strength of SNP support and the recent rise in popularity of the Liberal Democrats.

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