Next Conservative leader odds and predictions: Liz Truss edging Rishi Sunak

On September 5, either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will become the next prime minister of the United Kingdom after they made it to the final two of the Conservative Party leadership contest. Dan Childs looks at where they stand on the key issues.

Major Government jobs

Truss entered the cabinet as environment secretary in 2014. Since then she has held the positions of justice secretary (2016-17), chief secretary to the Treasury (2017-19), international trade secretary (2019-2021) and foreign secretary (2021-now).

Sunak rose to prominence in July 2019 when Boris Johnson appointed him as chief secretary to the Treasury. He was promoted to the position of chancellor in February 2020 before resigning three weeks ago.

Economic policies

Truss favours immediate tax cuts, specifically cancelling the planned rise in corporation tax and a reversal of the recent rise in the National Insurance rate.

Sunak pledged to press ahead with plans he put in place to “restore trust and rebuild the economy”. Recent tax increases would be likely to remain in place, at least in the short term.

Brexit stance

Truss voted remain in the 2016 referendum but has said that she was wrong to do so. As soon as 2017 she said that, given the opportunity to vote again, she would have voted for Brexit.

Sunak voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum.

Ukraine war position

As foreign secretary, Truss has been closely aligned with the policy of sending significant material support for Ukraine in the war against Russia.

Sunak has also been supportive of Ukraine, assuring President Zelensky in April that “the United Kingdom will remain your strongest ally”.

Partygate problems

Truss tested positive for Covid in January this year, hours after appearing in the House of Commons without wearing a face mask.

Sunak was issued with a fixed penalty notice for breaking Covid regulations during lockdown, becoming the first Chancellor of the Exchequer to have been found to have broken the law while in office.

Betting odds & analysis

After a rush of voting among Conservative MPs which swiftly whittled the race to replace Boris Johnson down from eight contenders to two, a much longer process will ultimately decide whether Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will become the next prime minister.

Conservative Party members will get to make the final decision and there were around 160,000 of them at the time of the 2019 leadership contest between Johnson and Jeremy Hunt.

They will be given plenty of time to make up their minds in a drawn-out process which concludes on September 5, when the final result will be announced.

Not long ago the membership appeared to be strongly supportive of Penny Mordaunt, who shortened to odds-on to be the next prime minister, but their backing seems to have moved behind Truss in recent days.

The most recent YouGov head-to-head poll between Truss and Sunak, taken between July 18 and July 19, placed the foreign secretary on 54 per cent and the former chancellor on 35 per cent.

And that information has filtered its way into the betting with Truss shortening to 4-6 to be the next prime minister and Sunak available at 11-8.

It should be remembered that Conservative membership support for Johnson was significantly stronger than in the country at large and probably much more solid than among Conservative MPs.

Perceived disloyalty to Johnson could be a factor in how some of them cast their votes and Sunak is on a stickier wicket in that respect since it was his resignation, alongside Sajid Javid, which contributed hugely to the timing of the former Prime Minister's demise.

Sunak appreciates that he has an uphill task ahead of him but has a plan to succeed, by pitching himself as the person best placed to take on Labour at the next general election.

In a YouGov poll among the general public from July 6-7, Sunak was the clear winner with 13 per cent of people choosing him as their preferred Conservative leader.

It was a wide-open race at the time but Sunak was a long way clear of Hunt, Javid and Dominic Raab, who each picked up four per cent, and even further clear of Truss (three per cent).

Sunak will look to play up his reputation as a safe pair of hands on the economy, having been the architect behind massive support packages, including the furlough scheme, which helped millions through the toughest times of the Covid pandemic.

However, he also needs to mask some significant weaknesses, including the controversy over the non-domiciled tax status of his wife and the fixed penalty notice he received for breaking Covid regulations.

Truss has a lead to protect but has plenty of time to lose it and should be mindful of how quickly the tide turned against her colleague Mordaunt.

The 46-year-old's status as a former remain supporter might not go down well among sections of Tory members and her tax-cutting commitments could expose her to accusations that she cannot be trusted to take tough decisions on the economy.

Truss has been a steadfast supporter for Ukrainian independence and is likely to re-emphasise that principle in an effort to stay in pole position but it look like being an unpredictable race and both contenders are likely to fancy their chances.

CLICK HERE TO ENTER

Not got a bet365 account? Bet £10 & get £50 in free bets

Open account offer. Minimum deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as bet credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Minimum odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude bet credits stake. Time limits/T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport