Matthew Engel on the US election: analysis, betting predictions and free tips

Best bets

Joe Biden to be president
3pts 5-9 Hills

Trump to win 150-179 (out of 538) electoral college votes
1pt 5-1 Betfair

Trump to lose all of Texas, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida
1pt 5-1 Ladbrokes

US election analysis

On Tuesday, what might be the biggest single betting event of all time will reach its climax, if not necessarily its resolution. By Wednesday we may know the answer to 2020's biggest who's-gonna-do-it - the self-proclaimed "stable genius" or the man he calls Sleepy Joe. Subject to what might be weeks of shenanigans.

The US presidential election seems to have been with us forever. And in this threadbare, virus-wrecked sporting year, the barminess of what is supposed to be a, you know, serious matter has provided compelling substitute entertainment. It beats the Olympics any day.

And this is reflected in the betting. The numbers are awesome. The matched money on the main Betfair market - on the winner - passed £216 million on Thursday morning. At various points you could lay Joe Biden for £100,000 and the price would not even flicker - or back him for £600,000 and the odds would have merely dropped from 1.53 to 1.52. (Do not try this at Plumpton).

Matthew Shaddick, the political betting guru at Ladbrokes, says his firm's volume is double the levels seen in 2016 for the Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton joust. He expects that, across GVC, which now owns Ladbrokes, the final numbers will top £10m and that the election as a whole could be a billion-pound market worldwide. Even though political betting is still largely taboo in the US itself.

In this kind of situation it is normal for value to be non-existent. All the good odds should have gone long ago. Yet the amazing thing is that they haven't. The prices on offer do not reflect any kind of reality as perceived by pollsters, journalists (fake noooooze!) and, most significantly, experienced political operatives across the US.

And almost every measurable indicator points towards a comfortable victory for Joe Biden. Yet Biden is still readily available at 1-2 with Trump hovering round 7-4. On the face of it, this is bonkers. I am not suggesting that Biden is home and hosed, although he could be, given that 70 million - more than half the turnout four years ago - have already voted. I do suggest that a more accurate price would be more like 1-4.

'The market could reach £400-500 million' - US election takes Betfair by storm

Bookmakers (as opposed to the exchanges) work on a mixture of weight of money and their own judgment. Usually, the first beats the second, but in this case that could have meant Trump actually being odds-on.

"Every single week of the campaign except one - the first debate - we have taken not just more bets for Trump, but more money," said Shaddick. "He's a big loser for us and I'm sure everyone else is in the same position."

Shaddick thinks that punters were seared by the two big votes when populists smashed the establishment four years ago: the Brexit vote in Britain followed rapidly by Trump's win, and have convinced themselves (just like the man himself) that he is invincible.

But this is not 2016. Hillary was never liked by Americans, even those who fell for Bill's roguish charm. She proved a dire campaigner and arrogantly ignored the three states that slew her: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Trump was the insurgent, fresh and different. Democrats were disengaged, floaters gave him the benefit of the doubt. And the polls were not wrong: Clinton still won the popular vote, by three million,
close to the predictions - her strategy cost her the electoral college and thus the presidency.

Thousands of tweets, hundreds of taxpayer-funded rounds of golf, an occasional hour at the Oval Office desk and four years later, weariness has set in. The Democrats are ferociously energised, even if their candidate is not. Suburban women (especially) and pensioners have turned away from Trump. It is Biden who offers some hope of intelligent management of Covid-19 and an eventual end to it.

Above all, perhaps, he won't keep yapping. Sure, there is an irreducible core of Trumpites, about 40 per cent, many of whom believe he was sent by God to fight the international conspiracy of Satanist paedophiles.

There are also some signs that Biden is struggling to hold the Democratic vote among black men and the huge Hispanic community.

Trump could cling on in both Pennsylvania and Florida. There will be attempts at voter suppression in some states, which might yet save Trump in the south. And ultimately the Supreme Court could intervene on his side, as they did for George W Bush in 2000, but I doubt if they would dare this time. The US is too angry for that.

But, taking all that into account, the maths and the mood seem compelling. Anger begets change. Yes, the polls could be wrong before but Biden's numbers have been way above Clinton's. I think enough Americans have now concluded what an overwhelming majority of non-Americans worked out long ago: that their president
suffers from a lifelong condition that might be termed pillockus obnoxious.

And personally, I hate betting odds-on. But, for those with more guts, there is still value there. If you want a less nerve-wracking punt, I would suggest a Biden landslide is not impossible.

Assuming that history repeats itself is thoroughly tricky, for both politicians and punters - especially now that voters have become much more volatile.

But for those ancient enough to remember the late 20th century, think of this. In Britain Labour suffered a shocking but narrow defeat under Neil Kinnock in 1992. Five years later, the new leader Tony Blair spent election day thinking he might just scrape home. He
won the biggest majority since 1935.

If Trump does win, I won't groan alone. And it won't all be about betting.

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