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Latest UK General Election odds and analysis: What are Labour's chances of winning a record number of seats?

Latest politics odds and general election betting odds plus analysis of Labour's expected number of seats won

Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer

Bookmakers try to make racing markets more competitive when there's a red-hot favourite by offering the jolly to win by more than a certain number of lengths and the same is happening in the UK general election betting with the July 4 poll now less than two weeks away.

Postal votes have been arriving on doormats and the first crosses placed in boxes but betting attention has turned from the outcome of the election to the margin of victory.

A Labour majority has been cut to 1-20 from 1-16 over the last week and Keir Starmer's party are as short as 1-200 to gain the most seats. Exactly how many seats that is is becoming the centre of focus and record totals are being eyed up.

Labour claimed 418 seats (of the 659 that were then available) in Tony Blair's landslide 1997 victory and secured just six fewer seats in 2001.

The Red Rose party held only 205 seats when parliament was dissolved, but bookmakers expect the 1997 figure to be well within reach.

There is a Labour seats over/under market poised conveniently at the 418 mark and Starmer's party are 1-3 with Coral and Ladbrokes to hit the over, while Paddy Power and Betfair go 11-4 that they fall short.

Looking at higher figures in the Labour seats band markets, a record-breaking 450-499 is the favourite at 5-4 with Hills, while 400-449 (which could still include a record figure) is 7-4 with Betfred. A monster total of 500 or more Labour seats is a best-priced 10-1 with Betfred, while 350-399 - still a solid result - is 13-2 and 300-349 is a 20-1 shot.

As Labour candidates are no doubt impressing on voters on the doorsteps, opinion poll results count for nothing and it's cold, hard votes that matter. Complacency must be the favourites' biggest fear if the public consider them home and hosed and neglect the formality of actually voting.

One market that won't attract much turnover is the Conservative seats lost bands, which have proved not to be fit for purpose. The market was set up in bands of 50 starting with no losses, but 201 or more losses turned out to be an inadequate final category and is now a best-priced 1-10.

The favourite in the Tory seats won market is 50-99 at 11-10 and it's only 9-2 with Betfair and Power that Rishi Sunak's party win fewer than 50 seats - having had 344 just a few weeks ago and 365 after the 2019 election. 

Ladbrokes go 4-1 that the Conservatives win fewer than 50 seats having been 12-1 when markets opened.

Reform are 13-8 from 100-30 a week ago to win seven or more seats but still only 1-2 to win one or two constituencies. There has also been market support for the Greens, who are 4-7 to win two or more seats with Hills having been 13-8 three weeks ago. They are also 8-11 to take over 5.5 per cent of the vote with Hills from evens a week ago.


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