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Latest Conservative leader odds and UK general election analysis: Badenoch early favourite to take charge of Tories

Latest politics odds and general election betting odds

New UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria outside 10 Downing Street
New UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria outside 10 Downing StreetCredit: Anadolu

Labour swept to a landslide victory in Thursday's UK election as the betting markets proved pretty accurate at predicting their winning margin.

Sir Keir Starmer replaced Rishi Sunak as prime minister with a healthy majority of around 170 - more than double the 80 held by the Conservatives in 2019 and between the figures achieved by Tony Blair in 1997 and 2001.

With one seat yet to declare on Friday, Labour had won 412 seats, an increase of 211 on their 2019 total, but short of the 418.5 over/under line that they had been 2-7 to exceed on Wednesday.

The Conservatives managed to reach triple figures and those who backed them from 15-8 to 13-8 to win 100-149 seats in the final days of the campaign were spot-on as they lost 250 seats to win just 121 in the new parliament.

The Liberal Democrats took a major jump, gaining 63 seats to reach 71, while the SNP, who had been 6-5 to win 20 or more seats, fell a long way short with only nine wins.

The exit poll which predicted 13 seats for newcomers Reform saw their seats line trading at 14.5 but while they finished second in 98 constituencies, they ended up with only five seats. The Greens exceeded expectations of only two seats by claiming four.

There were some major individual upsets, with none bigger than 33-1 independent candidate Adam Shockat beating Labour's Jonathan Ashworth in Leicester South. The market was also correct that former prime minister Liz Truss would lose her seat as a 5-4 shot in South West Norfolk.

With Tory cabinet ministers such as Grant Shapps, Therese Coffey, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Gillian Keegan among those to lose their seats, the market on the next Conservative leader has been shaken up.

The biggest contender to be ruled out of the race was Penny Mordaunt, who lost her seat in Portsmouth North having been a 5-1 chance to replace Sunak as leader. Kemi Badenoch is now the 5-2 favourite to succeed Sunak, who has said he will step down as leader once arrangements to find his successor are in place.

Tom Tugendhat, who appeals to the more moderate wing of the party, is 4-1 second favourite with Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Jeremy Hunt all on offer at single-figure odds. Reform leader Nigel Farage drifted from 10-1 to 14-1 to take over the Tories.


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