Eurovision Song Contest final predictions, odds, betting tips & where to watch

Eurovision Song Contest expert Stephen Cass gives his verdict and best bets for Saturday's final, which takes place in Rotterdam.

Where to watch

BBC1, 8pm Saturday

Best bets

Malta to win Eurovision
1pt each way 7-1 general

Italy top 'big five' country
2pts 5-6 Hills

Sweden to be given under 5.5 maximum 12s from juries
3pts 5-6 bet365

Germany to finish last
1pt 4-1 general

Eurovision final preview

The Eurovision betting market is always a dynamic and ever-changing rollercoaster but 2021 seems to be the wildest ever year and there could be plenty more fun to come.

Italy, France, Malta and Switzerland have all been favourites in the past few weeks and there have been wild swings for Ukraine and Bulgaria, in differing directions.

The market has now settled on Italy as the jolly. Maneskin’s sexed-up punk rock effort is catchy and well presented, with a very likeable band.

They have been handed a beautiful draw in slot 24 and that seems to have been the final piece of the jigsaw as far as punters are concerned, with 9-4 the best price now available. Yet there are reasons to oppose.

Italy almost certainly have to win the televote to have a sniff of outright victory, as their song is not friendly enough to juries to gain a top slot on that metric. Only one song drawn beyond 22 has won the televote in the past ten years.

I have a working theory that viewers have made up their minds by the time the last handful of acts appear. The jarring nature of the Italian chorus could also be harmful to a broad televote appeal. They can definitely win but there are reasons to look elsewhere in an open year.

Italy’s main market rivals France come with a very “French” song. A well performed ballad, with a little je ne sais quoi. I find it conceited and televoters may feel the same. Given neither Italy or France have been through the proven path of a semi-final they have to be taken on.

That said Italy are a much stronger overall package and the 5-6 about them winning the top 'big five' market - in effect a match bet with France - represents excellent value.

Malta were the favourites going into the event and following an excellent semi-final performance they briefly grabbed that mantle again in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

However a first-half berth in the running order draw soon put paid to that and following the producers' decision to place them in slot six they have drifted again.

It is certainly difficult to win from that spot, although four of the
last six winners have been first-half acts.

The producers have surrounded Malta with a bunch of no-hopers, in the main, perhaps giving them their best possible chance to shine. In the past ten years among acts drawn one to ten, there has been one winner and eight podium finishes.

As the strongest act by a mile in that draw section Malta are strongly placed to at least hit the podium. They are worth backing each-way again at 7-1.

Specials

Switzerland come to the party with a beautiful and haunting song which would be a contender in any other year. However it is too similar to Netherlands' 2019 winner to compete for top honours.

Bet365 have priced how many 12-point hauls the leading countries will receive from the jury votes.

They have set the line at 5.5 for Switzerland and given that the Netherlands managed only six when odds-on tournament favourite, that feels like a high bar to cross. Back the unders at 5-6.

Finally, Germany look to continue their proud recent tradition of appearing in the bottom two places.

They have managed that feat on four of the last five occasions and this year they have the worst song by a significant distance. There is a notion it may not finish last because it is happy-clappy and therefore might get some sympathy points. Personally, I doubt it.

The UK entry is equally atrocious but the disparity in the prices seems too much and the Germans rate the better bet.

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