Eurovision Song Contest 2023 predictions, odds and betting tips: Nordic neighbours a serious threat to Swedes

Where to watch

BBC One, 8pm Saturday

Best bets

Finland to win Eurovision
1pt each-way 5-2 bet365, Hills

Italy to win Eurovision
1pt each-way 80-1 Ladbrokes, Coral,

Czech Republic to finish in top ten
1pt win 7-4 general

Estonia top Baltic nation
1pt win 11-10 general

Italy top Big Five nation
1pt win 3-1 general

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 preview

Sweden’s Loreen takes to the stage on Saturday night bidding for a double whammy of history. Not only can she draw level with Johnny Logan as the only two-time winner, but victory for the Swedes will also rank them alongside Ireland as seven-time champions. Such pain from an equaliser won’t have been felt in Ireland since Thierry Henry's antics in 2011. 

While Sweden have a favourite’s chance of success, the show’s producers have given Finland every possible chance of an upset by placing Sweden in stall nine and Finland at 13. With three downbeat ballads before Finland they have been given the opportunity to put on a show and garner a large televote. It will all depend if Kaarija can improve his vocals enough to gain sufficient jury votes. 

Sweden are still the most likely winners but there is a path to victory for Finland, who look worth each-way support. Punters could also consider backing them without Sweden. 

The contest is once again slightly complicated by the Ukraine question. They have a good draw in stall 19 and if televotes materialise as they did last year they could win. However, the feeling is that their average televote score will be closer to six than 12 and that should see them finishing somewhere between fifth and ninth as their entry is not a jury-friendly song. 

Eurovision has seen many big-priced each-way shots hit the frame in recent years. Austria were 300-1 in 2018 and Russia 50-1 in 2019 for example. And while Sweden look nailed on to be in the top four and Finland’s televote should see them make the podium, the remaining two slots are really up for grabs. 

One act that could make the podium at a big price are Italy. Marco Menghoni’s strong vocals will ensure an excellent jury reception and the song stands out as the best ballad with Albania and Estonia either side. Italy look set to finish somewhere between third and seventh so 80-1 with four places is appealing. They are also worth backing to be best of the Big Five at 3-1. Main rivals France and Spain have been handed poor draws while Germany and the UK complete the field as big outsiders.

Czech Republic gave a fabulous performance in their semi-final. It is difficult for six singers to have cohesion but they achieved that with both vocals and choreography. The sisterhood message will resonate with many voters and the staging is outstanding. The song contains five Slavic languages and is sure to garner a lot of support in eastern Europe but there is no reason it won’t pick up western televotes and jury votes alike. 

Having been drawn in the second half of the final they have been lumbered with stall 14, straight after Finland (but after an ad break). That dampens expectations but they are not without hope of a top-ten finish and 6-4 about a song of this quality to achieve that is more than fair.  

Estonia perform before Finland, which can’t be a major positive. But the song is strong and her semi-final performance was excellent. The 11-10 available for top Baltic nation is a straight match with Lithuania, a poorer song with a better draw. The better song should edge it.