Eurovision Song Contest 2023 semi-final one odds, predictions and betting tips: Portuguese entry could struggle

Where to watch

BBC One, 8pm Tuesday

Best bets

Portugal not to qualify
1pt 7-4 bet365

Czech Republic to finish in the final top ten
1pt 5-2 general

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 semi-final one predictions

Ireland take to the stage on Tuesday in the first Eurovision semi-final. Wild Youth, a very capable band, have sent an anthemic, unifying indie-pop song. 

Having collaborated with a Swedish songwriter it feels "written for Eurovision". This has been a common Irish error in recent years and the song feels insincere as a result. 

Viewers will see through it and odds of 7-2 to qualify make no appeal, especially with old friends the United Kingdom not voting until Thursday night’s semi-final.

Ante-post jolly Sweden, currently evens for outright victory, perform on Tuesday and can be backed at 11-4 to win the semi-final. 

The price is due to semi-finals now being decided entirely by TV votes and their main rivals Finland bringing an irresistible televote package. Techno meets party-pop with a phenomenal stage show. 

It is easy to envisage a scenario where the favourites flip-flop after Tuesday's performances but punters should hold fire on backing Finland at 2-1 for outright glory. A second-half draw on Saturday night could be important to their chances.

It’s an extremely strong semi-final line-up and there are eight almost certain qualifiers - Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Israel, Moldova, Sweden, Czech Republic and Finland. 

That leaves Malta, Portugal, Croatia and the Netherlands battling it out for only two remaining places. Portugal have a bad draw in stall five. With some ropey vocals in rehearsals and an inaccessible song for much of Europe, odds of 7-4 not to qualify are appealing. 

Czech Republic comes to the contest with a terrific Slavic female empowerment anthem. The song builds to a strong finish and rehearsal clips have been promising too.

While there isn’t an angle from a semi-final perspective, they can be backed at 5-2 for a top-ten finish in Saturday's final. If this song was in the other semi-final it would be in the top two in the betting.