Betting preview & tips for second Eurovision Song Contest semi-final

BBC4, 8pm Thursday

Ireland take to the stage for the second Eurovision Song Contest semi-final, but with Sarah McTernan’s song 22 being placed at number two in the running order it will need a miracle to qualify from a high-quality heat.

Four of the top five in the overall betting are due to take the stage on Thursday night. United Kingdom viewers can vote in this semi-final but even some neighbourly love is unlikely to save McTernan and Ireland’s blushes.

Long-time favourites the Netherlands have a perfect late draw in stall 16 of 18, giving Duncan Laurence every chance of winning this semi-final on the way to outright glory on Saturday.

Arcade is an emotional rollercoaster of a track with a sincerity and poise that is rarely seen on the Eurovision stage. It stands out as the class act in the contest.

The fact that Laurence wrote the song himself comes across and jurors will surely rank this at or near the top. The main question is whether the Dutch package the song well enough on stage to do it justice.

The word from rehearsals is the staging doesn’t quickly engage the viewer but if the Dutch team have sorted that we are likely to be looking at this year’s overall winner.

It makes sense to take the 6-4 for him to win the second semi-final than the 7-4 outright, as that takes Australia and Iceland out of the equation.

In the last 22 semi-finals, only ten countries have managed to qualify from stall one. Armenia face that daunting task and with the Netherlands, Russia, Azerbaijan, North Macedonia, Malta and Sweden looking certain qualifiers, the remaining 12 countries could be battling for only four qualifying spots.

Armenia’s song is relying on a strong jury showing but with so much talent on show that is not guaranteed and 6-4 about them not to progress is fair.

Greece severely underperformed in their semi-final and they are also drawn in the first half of the grand final. They look weak favourites in the top Balkan market. North Macedonia come to the contest with a perfectly performed powerful vocal in a Bond-style ballad. They are well drawn in 17 and worth chancing to be top Balkans.

Recommendations
Holland to win semi-final two
3pts 6-4 Sky Bet
Armenia not to qualify
1pt 6-4 Betfair, Paddy Power
North Macedonia top Balkan
1pt 8-1 general

Already advised
Australia top ten outright
5pts 10-11 Sky Bet
Estonia not to qualify
1pt 7-4 general

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