South Africa v Wales predictions: Welsh can keep it respectable

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for South Africa v Wales on Saturday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Action, 4.05pm Saturday

Best bet

Wales +20
2pts 10-11 Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

It’s a remarkable stat that Wales have won just six of 37 Test matches against South Africa, and yet five of those victories have come in the last eight contests, a run that started in 2014.

But Wales fans looking for comfort before Saturday’s big showdown in Pretoria would do well to read the small print.

Four of those five wins came in Cardiff, the other in the USA against a second-string Springbok side, and two of the defeats were in games that really mattered - a Rugby World Cup quarter-final in 2015 and semi-final in 2019.

Add to that the fact that Wales have never won on South African soil, are on a slump after a poor Six Nations which ended with a home defeat to Italy, and are without injured players including Ken Owens, Justin Tipuric, Ross Moriarty, Aaron Wainwright, Uilisi Halaholo, Leigh Halfpenny and Johnny McNicholl, and odds of 1-12 and shorter about the hosts kicking off with a win start to make sense.

South Africa are world champions with a series win against the British & Irish Lions last season under their belts. With a host of star names in the side plus the most fearsome pack on the planet they are a team not to be taken lightly.

But before writing off Wales completely it’s worth checking out a handicap line that gives them a start of up to 20 points.

That’s a margin of defeat they have suffered just five times in their last 67 matches, two of which were against New Zealand, two against Ireland in Dublin and one against Argentina, when they were missing their Lions contingent last summer.

The most recent of those was in Ireland in this year’s Six Nations but Wales followed up with a tough trip to Twickenham and a home clash with Grand Slam champions France - both teams like South Africa blessed with dominant packs - and Wales showed they weren’t ready to be rolled over.

Against England Wales were 14-point underdogs but went down 23-19, while many predicted they would be steamrolled when given a ten-point start at home to Les Bleus but they stood their ground before going down 13-9.

Coach Wayne Pivac has already shown he can replicate the knack Warren Gatland had for getting the best out a team who were written off when they took the 2021 Six Nations title as 50-1 ante-post shots and on a run of seven defeats in nine.

Their squad is depleted but still retains a strong spine and plenty of experience, plus a Six Nations campaign already under their belts this season while the Boks are playing their first match since the autumn.

Wales face a huge test with incredibly powerful opponents, a hostile crowd, altitude and history all against them, but they are a side who know how to put up a fight.

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