France v Wales: match preview, where to watch and free tip

Free rugby union tip, best bets and analysis for France v Wales on Saturday.

Where to watch

ITV4 & S4C, 8pm Saturday

Best bet

France to win by one to 12 points
1pt 13-8 Betfair

Match preview

France are the infamous mercurial side of world rugby and Wales too have their highs and lows, but one consistent feature of their game is that when these teams meet, it’s nearly always tight.

In an 11-match run going back to 2011, which includes two Rugby World Cup knockout matches decided by a point each way and the famous 100-minute game in Paris, only once has there been a double-figure margin between the teams at the end.

France won 27-23 when they met in Cardiff in February and they have almost exactly the same starting line-up out - the one change sees Vincent Rattez coming into the backline for Arthur Vincent.

Wales have changed their front row but the spine of their team is similar and strengthened by the return of centre Jonathan Davies, while Rhys Webb lines up at scrum-half.

Wales have had a disappointing year, with just one Six Nations victory, while France look a more focused and drilled team under Fabien Galthie. The Top 14 is five matches into its campaign while Toulouse, Racing 92 and Clermont have all seen some European action and should be up to Test speed.

Les Bleus look the right favourites but Wales are hard to keep down so given how close the previous matches have been, a winning margin of no more than 12 points looks the best bet.

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