Italy v Wales predictions and rugby union tips

Where to watch Italy v Wales

ITV1, 2.15pm Saturday

Best bet

Italy
2pts 23-20 bet365

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Italy v Wales predictions

The Wooden Spoon has had a lengthy residency in Italy but may be about to depart for pastures new to stir the pot of a crisis-infested Wales team.

The Italians have propped up the Six Nations standings each of the last seven years, rarely threatening to escape the basement before last year’s dramatic win over Wales in Cardiff.

The Azzurri’s triumph at the Principality Stadium has been a turning point for Italian rugby and the two nations reconvene in Rome trending in different directions.

Both sides have lost all three of their Six Nations outings to date with Italy only above Wales courtesy of a solitary losing bonus-point, but it's the manner of those defeats which suggests the Italians are far closer to getting over the line than the Welsh.

Italy have pushed France and Ireland close in Rome, asking plenty of questions of the Irish defence on Paolo Garbisi’s return to action.

The Montpellier fly-half expertly probes and picks holes in a defence, and there are plenty of holes to be found in a Wales side who have conceded at least 34 points in three of their last four Tests.

Wales at least don’t have to worry about explosive full-back Ange Capuozzo, who is missing with a shoulder injury, but even without him, the hosts carry a serious threat.

Italy’s creditable efforts aren’t reflected in the odds which make them marginal underdogs, albeit the handicap is the smallest it has been for a meeting between the two sides.

Wales being any kind of a favourite feels like an oversight. They head to Italy having lost 12 of their last 15 games and with players struggling to function under the burden of the financial cataclysm threatening Welsh club rugby.

Coach Warren Gatland can’t decide on his strongest line-up, making six changes from the loss to England with Alun Wyn Jones and Dan Biggar absent entirely and scrum-half Rhys Webb handed a first Six Nations start since 2017.

It smacks of desperation from a team who can’t score points - they’ve failed to break the ten-point barrier in three outings - lack discipline and more often than not are losing the physical contest.

Wales are there to be beaten. All Italy have to do is seize the opportunity to end a decade-long wait for a Six Nations home win.

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