South Africa v Tonga predictions and rugby union tips: Springbok defence to the fore again

Where to watch South Africa v Tonga

ITV1, 8pm Sunday

Best bet

Under 63.5 points
2pts 10-11 bet365

South Africa v Tonga predictions

Just as they did in 2019 South Africa have suffered a pool-stage defeat at the Rugby World Cup, but just as they did four years ago, when they went on to lift the trophy in Japan, the Springboks have showcased their stonewall defence at this tournament.

In three matches the Boks have conceded just 16 points, fewer than any other team, but that's nothing new for them on this stage.

At the 2019 tournament South Africa lost their opening game to New Zealand 23-12, shipping two tries. But they won their next six matches, shipping just 44 points and two tries overall, and they have the remarkable distinction of having reached three World Cup finals, won all three and not conceded a single try.

The biggest news for the Boks is the return of fly-half Handre Pollard, who had been ruled out of the tournament through injury but was able to join up with the squad after hooker Malcolm Marx was forced to drop out.

Pollard was the heartbeat of the World Cup-winning side four years ago and his goalkicking could be key after the Springboks missed chances in their narrow defeat to Ireland.

However, Pollard has barely played in the last four months and the Boks may take some time to hit their stride, and while they have stuck with most of the same players who took to the pitch against Ireland, it's likely that the bench will be called into action early.

Tonga have struggled for points but have a strong pack and are unlikely to give in easily. They are handed a 42-point start but the best bet could be that there are no more than 63 points in the game. Most of those are likely to come from the Springboks in a straightforward win, but it may not be a spectacular landslide.

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