Scotland v Romania Rugby World Cup predictions and betting tips: Scots set big target against shaky Oaks

Where to watch Scotland v Romania

ITV1, 8pm Saturday

Best bets

Scotland to win by 51 to 60 points
1pt 15-4 bet365
Scotland to win by 61 to 70 points
1pt 10-3 bet365

Handicaps

Scotland -59
Romania +60

Scotland v Romania predictions

Scotland have been set a huge task to reach the quarter-finals of the Rugby World Cup, and bookmakers have handed them another for their clash with Romania on Saturday.

Two bonus-point wins will guarantee the Scots a place in the last eight, but the second of those will have to come against tournament favourites Ireland. First up it’s winless Romania, and while that should be an easy win, to cover the handicap Scotland will probably have to put 60 points on the board, something that has been pretty much the limit of their output for the last decade.

Only twice in the last ten years have Scotland reached that mark, a run of 102 Tests. One of those was a 61-0 success against Russia at the 2019 World Cup, a fixture very much on the same level as this one as Romania are by some way the weakest team in the pool and have suffered two heavy defeats already. On top of that they have reshuffled their entire team while injuries have taken their toll.

But Scotland have also made wholesale changes, and among those to miss out are fly-half and playmaker Finn Russell plus try threats Duhan van der Merwe and Blair Kinghorn.

It’s by no means a weak Scottish line-up and they still look a cut above, but it may take time for things to gel on the pitch.

Ben Healy starts at fly-half, earning his fourth cap, and there is still plenty of pace out wide in Kyle Steyn and Darcy Graham, but it's asking a lot of some unfamiliar combinations to reach such a high score.

Romania's starting line-up, though, has suffered similar upheaval. Only three players are retained from the 76-0 defeat to South Africa, while Alin Conache, usually a scrum-half, has to start at fly-half for the injured Hinckley Vaovasa.

The Oaks have the worst defensive record at this World Cup, having shipped 158 points in two matches, and their match stats don't look great. Against Ireland Romania conceded 12 penalties and missed 40 tackles, while against South Africa those totals were 18 and 35.

Figures like that will inevitably lead to heavy defeat so it's not hard to see Scotland picking up the points they need, but winning-margin bets look a better option than tackling that trappy handicap figure.

Teams

Scotland: O Smith; D Graham, C Harris, C Redpath, K Steyn; B Healy, A Price; J Bhatti, E Ashman, J Sebastian, S Skinner, G Gilchrist, L Crosbie, H Watson, M Fagerson.
Replacements: J Matthews, R Sutherland, WP Nel, S Cummings, R Darge, G Horne, B Kinghorn, H Jones 

Romania: M Simionescu; S Lama, J Tomane, F Tangimana, T Sikuea; A Conache, G Rupanu; A Savin, R Irimescu, G Gajion, A Motoc, S Iancu, F Rosu, D Ser, C Chirica
Replacements: F Bardasu, I Hartig, C Burtila, M Iftimiciuc, D Stratila, F Surugiu, T Boldor, N Onutu

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.