New Zealand v South Africa: Rugby World Cup final predictions & betting tips + grab a £40 free bet from Paddy Power

Where to watch New Zealand v South Africa

You can watch New Zealand v South Africa in the Rugby World Cup final on ITV1, 8pm Saturday.

Match prediction & best bet

Under 42.5 points
2pts 10-11 BoyleSports

Tribet - any other result (either team to win by up to six points or draw)
2pts 7-5 bet365

Bet on New Zealand v South Africa here and get £40 in Rugby World Cup free bets from Paddy Power

New Zealand v South Africa betting odds

New Zealand 5-6
South Africa 13-10
Draw 20-1

New Zealand v South Africa: head-to-head stats

Previous meetings Overall New Zealand have won 62 of 105 meetings between the sides with South Africa victorious on 39 occasions. There have been four draws

The last ten matches have produced five wins for the All Blacks, four for South Africa, and a draw

Last match: The Springboks stunned New Zealand in their final World Cup warm-up match with a 35-7 victory

World Cup meetings: The teams have met four times in the tournament and New Zealand have won three of them but the one they all remember is the Springbok's 15-12 victory in extra time in the 1995 final

New Zealand v South Africa Rugby World Cup final predictions

They are the two most successful teams in Rugby World Cup history, the two fiercest rivals in the game, and on Saturday night one of New Zealand or South Africa will lift the trophy at the fifth tournament in a row.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Hosts France were supposed to have found the steel to finally go all the way after three final defeats, or Grand Slam-winning Ireland were supposed to keep their record winning run intact to the very end.

Instead the big two take centre stage, for only the second time in a final, but while they are familiar foes, the contrast between the two is greater than ever, and their semi-final performances summed them up.

New Zealand sailed into the final with a 44-6 victory over Argentina, running in seven tries, and dazzling with their attacking play. The Springboks fought back from 15-6 down against England through the power in their pack, scoring the only try of the game with a forward drive with less than ten minutes to go, then kicked the winning penalty after being awarded a late scrum penalty close to the halfway line.

All Blacks fans love to see their players run rings around the opposition while Springbok fans want to see their team front up, scrummage hard and power their way to victory.

And in keeping with that mantra South Africa have turned to their tactical innovation of seven forwards on the bench and just one back. They’ve also recalled half-backs Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard, who started the 2019 final win over England and came off the bench early in the semi-final to turn things around.

Assuming it’s not a gigantic bluff by director of rugby Rassie Erasmus, it means the Boks have laid all their cards on the table and that the All Blacks are in for a huge physical onslaught.

This has been an unusual tournament in that both finalists have had tougher paths than usual. There’s a thread running through South Africa’s results as after an 18-3 win over Scotland they were edged 13-8 by Ireland then won by a point against France and England in the knockout stage.

New Zealand have shown far more attacking edge but their defence looks set to come under great scrutiny at the Stade de France, and they showed great discipline and patience against the Pumas in their semi-final.

Those will be the watchwords in the final and in a desperately tight game to call the best bets could be to bank on a low-scoring game and close finish.

These teams have met four times at the Rugby World Cup including the last two tournaments and none of those games has reached the 40-point mark.

And while the last four meetings have all been decided by double-figure margins, before that only one of the previous seven meetings was settled by more than two points with a draw thrown in, too.

New Zealand form

The All Blacks lost their opening match at the tournament to hosts France but since then have won five in a row and scored 46 tries.

South Africa form

The Springboks also lost a pool match, going down 13-8 to Ireland. But they have won both knockout games - against France and England - by a single point.

New Zealand v South Africa teams 

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett; 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele’a; 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith; 1 Ethan de Groot , 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Brodie Retallick, 5 Scott Barrett , 6 Shannon Frizell, 7 Sam Cane,  8 Ardie Savea
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown 

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse; 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe; 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk; 1 Steven Kitshoff, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 3 Frans Malherbe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Duane Vermeulen
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Jasper Wiese, 23 Willie le Roux 

New Zealand v South Africa team news 

New Zealand: The All Blacks have made just two changes to their side, with Brodie Retallick starting in the second row while Sam Whitelock drops to the bench, while Nepo Laulala is preferred over Fletcher Newell as back-up tighthead prop. 

South Africa: The Boks restore starting half-backs Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard to the starting line-up while they have named seven forwards on the bench. Willie le Roux is the only back among the replacements.

Make the most of your £40 Rugby World Cup final free bet: all of our New Zealand v South Africa Tips

With Paddy Power giving away £40 in Rugby World Cup 2023 free bets, you might feel spoilt for choice. Here are some betting tips for the Rugby World Cup final that you may want to consider:

Under 42.5 points @ 5-6 with Paddy Power
New Zealand to win by 1-7 points @ 11-4 with Paddy Power
South Africa to win by 1-7 points @ 100-30 with Paddy Power

*Note that these odds are subject to change

Grab a £40 Paddy Power Rugby World Cup final free bet on New Zealand v South Africa

We’ve already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet for the 2023 Rugby World Cup. 

Well, you can follow these simple steps outlined below to grab your £40 free bet to place on New Zealand v South Africa on Saturday. It's fast, secure and straightforward.

1. Head over to Paddy Power through this link and click the Join button on their homepage
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4. You will be rewarded with £40 of free bet tokens added to your balance

Paddy Power Rugby World Cup 2023 betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new player promotion before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of the Rugby World Cup 2023 betting offer and what's expected of you as a new player.

1. New UK & ROI customers only
2. Minimum deposit £10 bet at minimum odds of 1-2 to qualify 
3. Get £40 in free bets, valid for 30 days
4. SMS verification required
5. Bets placed on Greyhound racing markets are excluded.
6. Only deposits via cards will qualify

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