New Zealand v Italy predictions and Rugby World Cup tips: Azzurri's scoring spree may hit the buffers

Where to watch New Zealand v Italy

ITV1, 8pm Friday

Best bet

New Zealand -28
2pts Evs bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

New Zealand v Italy predictions

After two easy wins against tier-two nations Italy's World Cup campaign steps up a notch with their final two pool matches against New Zealand and France, and this looks to be where they come unstuck.

The Azzurri look to have found a new cutting edge under Kiwi coach Kieran Crowley, running in 12 tries and 90 points in two matches - more than they managed in all four pool games in 2015 - and you can bet shrewd operator Crowley will be aiming to give everything for an upset in one of the two final games.

But New Zealand, who have won all 15 games they have played against Italy, look unlikely fall guys. Having lost to France in their opening match the All Blacks have to ensure full focus and have named a strong team for this clash.

Bookmakers have set their handicap in the high 20s but 12 of the Kiwis' 15 wins over Italy, including the last four, have come by more than 30 points. The most recent was by a 47-9 scoreline in Rome in November 2021 - the second consecutive head-to-head encounter in which Italy failed to score a try - and the two most recent World Cup pool meetings in 2007 and 2003 ended 76-14 and 70-7.

Italy have scored more than ten points in only one of their last ten matches against the All Blacks and for all their attacking swagger, New Zealand are built on strong foundations. At the last four World Cups they have conceded less than ten points per match on average at the pool stage.

It's Italy's misfortune at the World Cup that they always end up on a pool with two tier-one teams and at the last three World Cups they have scored just one try in five pool matches against elite sides and never scored more than ten points.

It's going to be hard work for the Azzurri, even blessed with the talents of Ange Capuozzo and Monty Ioane out wide, to break down that black wall and a 28-point handicap does not look to offer enough of a buffer against the All Blacks' attacking line-up.

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