England v South Africa World Cup 2023 semi-final predictions & betting tips + grab a £40 free bet from Paddy Power

Where to watch England v South Africa

You can watch England v South Africa in the Rugby World Cup semi-final on ITV1 at 8pm on Saturday

Match prediction & best bet

Under 21.5 first-half points
2pts 5-6 Betfair, Paddy Power

South Africa to win by one to 12 points
2pts 7-4 bet365

Bet on England v South Africa here and get £40 in Rugby World Cup free bets from Paddy Power

The history of big matches between England and South Africa is one of tight contests with defence to the fore and the Springboks have become so adept at building a winning platform and pulling away at the end.

England v South Africa betting odds

England 5-1
South Africa 1-5
Draw 33-1

England v South Africa: head-to-head stats

Recent meetings England have won three of the last five meetings but going back to 2006 their record stands at four wins in 20 matches

Last match South Africa were four-point underdogs for last November's Test at Twickenham but ran out 27-14 winners

England v South Africa matchday preview

We've been here before. Four years ago England and South Africa met in the Rugby World Cup final and the Springboks ran out comfortable winners in the end by a scoreline of 32-12. 

The 2019 final was the fifth World Cup meeting between these teams and third in the knockout stage – and South Africa have won all three of those.

Those meetings date back to 1999 but while a lot has changed in the game since then, one thing that remains is South Africa's constant streak of pragmatism and their ability to get the job done and move on. And England simply seem to lack the consistency to stop them.

Remarkably three of those five World Cup meetings have taken place at Saturday's venue - the Stade de France in Paris, where Jannie de Beer kicked five drop goals in a 34-point haul as the Boks claimed a 44-21 victory in the 1999 quarter-final.

It was England's year in 2003 as they blew away a poor Boks side 25-6 in the pool stage before going on to lift the trophy, but in 2007 the teams met twice in Paris, as the Springboks beat a depleted England side 36-0 in a pool match before edging them 15-6 in the final.

And in 2019 South Africa recorded a second final victory over the Red Rose to claim the trophy for a third time. In those five World Cup meetings England have scored just one try to South Africa's seven and all the signs are that defence is going to be the overriding factor again in the French capital on Saturday night.

These are two of the best defensive sides at the tournament. England conceded the fewest tries in the pool stage, shipping just three, while South Africa were joint second-best with a tally of four. England held out with 14 men against Argentina until the 79th minute, by which time the game was already won, while the Boks showed their hand in the pool stage against tier-one sides with an 18-3 win over Scotland and 13-8 defeat to Ireland.

The quarter-finals were more open for both teams but they faced teams with attacking mindsets in Fiji and France, whereas this is a meeting of sides with similar philosophies. 

In the 2019 final the teams exchanged penalties as the Boks led 9-6 at the break before pulling away with two tries in the final 15 minutes, and that was the pattern in all three Lions Tests in 2021, when the three matches saw just one first-half try, scored by the Lions in the final Test.

The stakes are so high that another tense contest seems almost assured with the early exchanges set to be tight and low-scoring. But South Africa have shown more of an attacking edge at the tournament and can pull away again. We've been there before. 

England form

England are the only unbeaten team at this World Cup but before arriving at the tournament they had won four of ten matches this year.

South Africa form

South Africa's only defeats in 11 matches this year have come against New Zealand and Ireland.

England v South Africa teams 

England: Freddie Steward; Jonny May, Joe Marchant, Manu Tuilagi, E Daly; Owen Farrell, 9 Alex Mitchell; Joe Marler, Jamie George, Dan Cole, Maro Itoje, George Martin, Courtney Lawes, Tom Curry, Ben Earl
Replacements: Theo Dan, Ellis Genge, Kyle Sinckler, Ollie Chessum, Billy Vunipola, Danny Care, George Ford, Ollie Lawrence 

South Africa: Damian Willemse; Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Cheslin Kolbe; Manie Libbok, Cobus Reinach; Steven Kitshoff, Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert, Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Duane Vermeulen
Replacements: Deon Fourie, Ox Nche, Vincent Koch, RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith, Faf de Klerk, Handre Pollard, Willie le Roux 

England v South Africa team news 

England: Freddie Steward replaces Marcus Smith at full-back while Joe Marler steps up from the bench in place of Ellis Genge.

South Africa: The Springboks have stuck with the same matchday 23 who beat France in the last eight.

Make the most of your £40 Rugby World Cup free bet: all of our England v South Africa Tips

With Paddy Power giving away £40 in Rugby World Cup 2023 free bets, you might feel spoilt for choice. Here are some betting tips for the England v South Africa match that you may want to consider:

South Africa to win by eight to 14 points &11-4 with Paddy Power
Under 21.5 first-half points @5-6 with Paddy Power
Under 4.5 match tries @5-6 with Paddy Power

*Note that these odds are subject to change

Grab a £40 Paddy Power Rugby World Cup free bet on South Africa

We’ve already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet for the 2023 Rugby World Cup. 

Well, you can follow these simple steps outlined below to grab your £40 free bet to place on South Africa, during the Rugby World Cup 2023 semi-final on Saturday. It's fast, secure and straightforward.

1. Head over to Paddy Power through this link and click the Join button on their homepage
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Paddy Power Rugby World Cup 2023 betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new player promotion before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of the Rugby World Cup 2023 betting offer and what's expected of you as a new player.

1. New UK & ROI customers only
2. Minimum deposit £10 bet at minimum odds of 1-2 to qualify 
3. Get £40 in free bets, valid for 30 days
4. SMS verification required
5. Bets placed on Greyhound racing markets are excluded.
6. Only deposits via cards will qualify

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