England vs South Africa predictions & rugby betting tips: Much-changed Boks can edge another win

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Where to watch England vs South Africa

You can watch England vs South Africa on TNT Sports 1 at 5.40pm on Saturday

Match prediction & best bet

South Africa to win by one to 12 points
2pts 19-10 Coral, Ladbrokes

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England vs South Africa odds

Here are the latest betting odds for England vs South Africa with Sky Bet

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England vs South Africa predictions

The old cliche about mercurial France teams of yesteryear used to be “which France will turn up?” but South Africa coach Rassie Erasmus is pushing that adage to new heights.

His Springbok side beat Scotland 32-15 last week but as they now turn their attention to England at Twickenham on Saturday, Erasmus has made no fewer than 12 changes to his starting line-up and recalled one player after a three-year absence. The seven-one forwards to backs split on the bench has also been jettisoned in favour of a more conventional five-three.

He’s been called a maverick, an innovator, and lately arrogant, but Erasmus, with two World Cups and a series win over the Lions on his CV, must know what he’s doing.

The scale of the sweeping changes to his line-up might have been unexpected but there are 15 players in South Africa's 23-man squad who faced off against England in the World Cup semi-final last autumn.

And when you have the huge squad depth of the Springboks, as well as a six-day turnaround from that win over Scotland, the coach’s approach appears to make sense.

England coach Steve Borthwick is predicting a “thrilling contest” and certainly recent history between the pair is finely balanced, but South Africa have held the upper hand in the last five years, which have included Rugby World Cup final and semi-final victories for the Boks.

The visitors have won six of ten meetings over the last decade and England’s last two victories, at Twickenham in 2018 and 2021, both came by a single point.

The Springboks were more convincing winners on their last visit in 2022 but, given the sweeping changes to their side, the latest instalment of this fierce rivalry looks set to be close again.

England have certainly fought hard in recent encounters with the world champions, most notably in last year’s World Cup semi-final which they led 15-6 with a little over ten minutes to go before losing 16-15.

That’s become a familiar tale for the Red Rose, who have lost their last four matches despite holding leads in all of them and questions are being asked of their ability to close out games.

But equally concerning is England’s defence, which is supposed to be getting accustomed to the new blitz set-up but last Saturday conceded 42 points against Australia, their highest total in 21 matches.

The attacking stats are just as worrying, too, as England have managed only four tries in their last meetings with South Africa – and three of those came in one match.

England are desperate to win and will surely dig deep in defence and in the physical confrontations, but they look set to come off second-best once again.

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