Resurgent Lee Westwood threatening back-to-back victories

Sky Sports Golf, 7am Sunday

Story so far
Danny Willett and Patrick Reed, 80-1 and 22-1 respectively ante-post, are joint-leaders of the DP World Tour Championship with 18 holes to play at the Earth Course, Dubai.

Willett, working his way back into form having endured a winless spell since his 2016 Masters triumph, played the final five holes of round three in three under par to reach 14 under going into Sunday.

A four-under-par third-round back-nine left Reed, the current Masters champion, on the same score. Jordan Smith is a shot back, alone in third place, why Lee Westwood, Nedbank Challenge champion last week, is tied for fourth spot and threatening back-to-back victories.

Pre-tournament favourite, Rory McIlroy, is five shots behind in a share of 13th, and available at 33-1 for a third Earth Course success.

Leaderboard
-14 Danny Willett, Patrick Reed
-13 Jordan Smith
-12 Dean Burmester, Matt Wallace, Lee Westwood
-11 Tom Lewis, Adrian Otaegui
-10 Henrik Stenson, Jon Rahm, Shubhankar Sharma, Sergio Garcia
-9 Rory McIlroy, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Alex Noren, Alexander Bjork

Best prices
2 P Reed, 7-2 D Willett, 9 L Westwood, M Wallace, 10 J Smith, 14 D Burmester, 20 J Rahm, 33 S Garcia, R McIlroy, 40 T Lewis, H Stenson, 80 bar

Final-day advice
Seventh place in the Turkish Airlines Open at the start of this month was a strong pointer that Danny Willett was working his way back to top form, but he flopped in the Nedbank Challenge last week to put punters off the scent.

The Sheffield man, who has got 15 months of work with latest coach Sean Foley under his belt, has to accept some inconsistency as he beds in swing changes. Opening rounds of 67, 67 and 68 over the first three days in Dubai, though, suggest the Willett resurgence is a serious one.

Three rounds in the 60s were followed by a Sunday 70 in Turkey and it may be a similar story in Dubai. The quality of this field may just prove too much for Willett to end his victory drought and a final-round twoball with Patrick Reed is hardly the most straightforward of assignments for a player who still has some technical vulnerability. Next season should be a good one for Willett, but his final round of 2018 may end in slight disappointment.

Patrick Reed is a worthy favourite and the most likely champion from the final pairing, but he carded a final-round 73 at the Earth Course when entering Sunday in third place in 2015. He has never won a regulation European Tour event and looks a short price to repel a tightly-packed and star-studded leaderboard.

Jordan Smith has won only one European Tour event – and that was gift-wrapped by Alexander Levy when the Frenchman missed a final-green tiddler for the title – and this would be by far the biggest achievement of his career. Nerves may get the better of the Bath boy.

The top three on the leaderboard look beatable and this appears a wide-open event with 18 holes to play. A thrilling shootout in sunny, breezy conditions seems to be in store.

If Dean Burmester putts well on Sunday, the power-packed South African would be the value option at 14-1, but he can be clumsy on the greens and final-round pressure could magnify the weakness. Burmester has never won a European Tour event outside of his homeland.

All things considered, the two most appealing outright prices at this stage are Lee Westwood at 9-1 and Jon Rahm at 20-1.

Westwood is full of beans, having got back to winning ways in the Nedbank Challenge last week, and he has been making hay at another happy hunting ground. Westwood won the 2009 DP World Tour Championship at the Earth Course.

From two shots behind and with his tail up, Westwood looks extremely dangerous, while Rahm is far from finished with this tournament from a further two shots adrift. The Spaniard was troubled by a wrist niggle which developed during round two, but the strapping was absent for round three and birdies at the final two par-fives kept the defending champion close enough to have designs on retaining his crown.

Most firms are going a quarter the odds, the first three places, and 9-1 Westwood looks more than fair given he has only three players narrowly ahead of him.

Final-round threeball punters should consider Reed, who should have too much swagger for Willett in the final match (8am UK and Ireland time), while Tom Lewis can outgun Adrian Otaegui in their 7.30am encounter.

Outright recommendation
L Westwood
2pts each-way 9-1 general

Twoball recommendations
P Reed
2pts 4-5 Hills
T Lewis
1pt 19-20 Sky Bet

Read every day for no-nonsense previews and expert sports betting tips

Follow us on Twitter

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport