The relationship between what happened before and what happens in the playoffs

Only one of the 90 teams who gained more than 90 points in an EFL season did not win automatic promotion – Sheffield Wednesday this season in League One. They gained 96 points and finished third.

They could still go up, though. On Friday, they kick off the playoff semi-final first legs away to Peterborough, who finished three places and 19 points below them.

Teams who seemed better in the regular season do better in the playoffs – not always but most of the time.

Since 1988-89 the top four teams in each division who did not win automatic promotion have gone into the playoffs. In two-legged semi-finals, the highest qualifiers play the lowest and the second-highest play the second-lowest. The teams with the better regular-season results have the last leg at home.

Sixty-three per cent of the time the highest qualifiers knocked out the lowest, 56 per cent of the time the second-highest knocked out the second-lowest. On average there had been eight points between the highest and lowest qualifiers, three points between the second-highest and second-lowest.

Usually, then, the playoffs were contested by teams with similar regular-season records, but there were differences – and when one team did a bit better than the other in the regular season they were a bit more likely to progress in the playoffs, and when one team did a lot better than the other in the regular season they were a lot more likely to progress in the playoffs.

I compared regular-season and playoff results for the 34 seasons from 1988-89 to 2021-22. I started by working out what the regular-season results implied for the playoffs. If teams performed at the same level as they had in the regular season, what would happen in the playoffs?

The highest qualifiers would score 54 per cent of the goals in their games against the lowest qualifiers and the second-highest would score 51 per cent of the goals in their games against the second-lowest. And what did happen? The highest qualifiers scored 54 per cent of the goals and the second-highest scored 51 per cent of the goals.

Overall, regular-season form was reproduced exactly in the playoffs. Individually, of course, some teams did better and other teams did worse.

Enough on positions for the moment, though. What about points? There could be fewer points between the highest and lowest qualifiers in one division than between the second-highest and second-lowest in another. They are this season if you compare League Two with either League One or the Championship.

I noted the number of regular-season points separating teams who met in the playoff semi-finals. When the difference was between one and six points, the team with most went through 53 per cent of the time. When the difference was between seven and 12 points, the team with most went through 62 per cent of the time. And when the gap was 13 points or more the team with most went through 94 per cent of the time.

What happened in finals? They have been single-legged affairs since 1989-90. I studied those. The finalist with the better regular-season results gained promotion 54 per cent of the time. You will notice that the progression rate was lower than for either of the semi-finals.

There are two reasons for this. First, finalists tended to be more closely matched. The average difference in regular-season positions between playoff semi-finalists is 2.0. The average difference in regular-season positions between playoff finalists was 1.4. Second, finals were single games and semi-finals consisted of two games. The longer the contest in any sport the more likely it is that the competitors who seem to have more ability will come out on top.

Sheffield Wednesday over 46 games of the regular season seemed to have more ability than the next three teams in League One. That does not mean they are certain to win the playoffs, but it does suggest they might be the most likely winners. And if they do go up they will become the 90th EFL team out of 90 to get more than 90 points in a season and gain promotion one way or another.

Scoring in football starts slowly then gathers pace

There are fewer goals in the first half of games than the second, and in two-part knockout ties there are fewer goals in the first leg than the second.

Consider EFL playoffs in the 33 seasons from 1989-90 to 2021-22. All finals were single-legged and all semi-finals still double-legged.

The figures that follow exclude extra time and penalty shootouts.

There were 2.3 goals per game in finals and 2.4 goals per game in semi-finals. But in semi-finals there was a big difference between first and second legs. On average there were 2.1 goals in first legs and 2.6 goals in second legs.

Two-thirds of first legs yielded fewer than three goals, only half of second legs. Overall in semi-finals 58 per cent of games featured fewer than three goals, the same proportion as for finals.

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