What Allardyce must change if Leeds are to stay in the Premier League

Why are Leeds in a mess and will new manager Sam Allardyce get them out of it? They have a daunting run-in, but that has happened before.

Last season Leeds faced Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea before Brighton and Brentford. They lost the first three games then got a draw and a win to stay up. They started from a better position, though.

Today Leeds are out of the relegation zone only on goal difference. Their remaining fixtures are against Manchester City, Newcastle, West Ham and Tottenham – three teams near the top of the table and one team who are better than their results and might need points as well. And Allardyce was appointed only on Wednesday.

Leeds’s problems are not new. They finished ninth in their first season back in the Premier League, but they were 17th last season and they are 17th now.

In the first season they ranked 14th for goals conceded, last season they ranked 19th and this season they rank 20th. In all three seasons they ranked a little above or below mid-table for goals scored. They have been letting in too many goals.

In the first season they conceded 1.4 goals per game, in the second season 2.1 and this season 2.0. Allardyce told Talksport: “We’re needing to score three goals every game to win. If we’re left to do that, that will be impossible.”

Only two teams have conceded two goals a game or more over a whole 38-game Premier League season and stayed up: Leeds last season and Wigan in 2009-10. The other 21 went down.

Why have Leeds shipped so many goals?

They faced 15 shots per game in the first season, 15 last season and 14 this season. Premier League teams who face that many shots typically concede between 1.5 and 1.6 goals per game. Leeds did slightly better in the first season but they have done a lot worse since.

Perhaps opponents have shot from particularly dangerous positions. Expected goals stats vary – they always do – but across a range of them the average for expected goals conceded was 1.8 per game last season and 1.7 this season. Leeds might have been a bit unlucky, or let in a few goals they should not, or both. But the expected goals levels are disturbingly high anyway.

Allardyce’s most recent Premier League teams – West Bromwich, Everton, Crystal Palace, Sunderland and West Ham – faced similar numbers of shots to Leeds. But they conceded fewer goals – except for West Bromwich, his last team, and the only team with whom he has been relegated from the Premier League.

Fewer attacks bring more goals for Manchester City

Sam Allardyce’s first game as Leeds manager is today at Manchester City.

The good news. Leeds will face fewer attacks than they would against other opponents. There are fewer turnovers in City’s games so each side receive the ball less often.

The bad news. City play with greater efficiency than other teams, so they gain more from fewer possessions.

I took detailed counts during City’s last two games – wins by 2-1 at Fulham then 3-0 at home to West Ham.

Approximately two out of every three City possessions reached the last quarter of the pitch, the area from which almost all goals are scored. One in six contained a shot. One in 28 culminated in a goal.

One in 28 might sound like a poor ratio, but City averaged 70 possessions a match so that worked out as 2.5 goals a match. I would not be surprised if City get about 70 possessions in most matches. They averaged 2.5 goals against Fulham and West Ham and they have averaged 2.6 in other Premier League games this season.

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