Unusual part of Arsenal's Premier League season was their rise and not their fall

Did Arsenal bottle the Premier League title race? There might be a kinder and better explanation.

Arsenal could still become champions, but it is highly unlikely. Manchester City will claim the title if Arsenal lose at Nottingham Forest today – and even if Arsenal draw or win unless City get a worse result at home to Chelsea tomorrow.

Let me repeat a question I asked in February. What is the next number in this sequence: 31, 27, 34, 35, 34?  

The answer was 50. The numbers were points gained by Arsenal in half seasons since Mikel Arteta became manager. In halves of previous seasons Arsenal’s points tally was usually in the low to middle 30s. In the first half of this season it leapt to 50. With two games to play in the second half Arsenal have 31 points. They will finish the second half with between 31 and 37 points.

So the second half of this season has been like halves of previous seasons. In the first half, for whatever reason, they surpassed themselves. Perhaps they played better football than they are capable at the moment of sustaining, perhaps they enjoyed a lot of luck – and if so, do not begrudge them good fortune.

Some say Arsenal’s results collapsed just in the last few weeks. I think there is a bit more that should be added. Arsenal failed to win only three of their first 19 games. They failed to win any of the next three. Then they went on a seven-game winning run, since when they have taken maximum points only twice in seven games.

If a team’s results go up or down and there was no foreseeable reason, they might have got suddenly better or worse and stay at the new level. More often they will return to what had previously seemed reasonable for them.

City in the first half of this season gained 42 points. In halves of the five previous seasons they had averaged 46 points. The range was from 38 to 55. Reasonable expectations for City points in the second half of this season were probably in the middle 40s. With three games to go they have 45, so they could end up with as many as 54, but that would still be within their recent range.

City have done what City can do. Arsenal for a long time did much more than Arsenal usually do. That is good not bad, whatever happens next.

Manchester City go back to where they started in Europe

Manchester City’s first game in Europe was in Istanbul. Their next will also be in that city.

Three weeks from today City will play Inter in the Champions League final at the Ataturk Olympic Stadium.

It had not been built 55 years ago when on October 2, 1968, City played a European Cup first-round second leg away to Fenerbahce. They had drawn the first leg at home 0-0 then lost the second leg 2-1. It was City’s first European adventure and it was over almost as soon as it had begun.

Assistant manager Malcolm Allison thought European football – and English football – was too negative. When City became English champions and qualified for the European Cup, he said: “I promise you City will attack these teams as they have not been attacked since the days of the old Real Madrid.”

It did not happen then. It has happened now. On Wednesday City earned a return trip to Istanbul by scoring four goals – without conceding any – against the new Real Madrid, the reigning champions of Europe who last season knocked out City, Liverpool and Chelsea and this season knocked out Chelsea and Liverpool again. It was worth the wait.

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