Simon Giles: Premier League newcomers are not the only ones in survival scrap

Last season was the first since 1997-98, and only the second in the Premier League era, in which all three promoted teams were relegated.

Like 12 months ago, this season's fresh arrivals from the Championship, Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton, are all winless after five games, so could they be set for a similar fate?

These past two seasons are the first since 2004-05 in which the promoted teams failed to win any of their first five matches.

This term's promoted clubs have seven combined points and a goal difference of minus 14. They have been more competitive than Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton at this stage of last season – three points with a goal difference of minus 21 – but are still well below the average for the last 20 seasons of 14 points, 3.4 wins and a minus-ten goal difference.

Fifteen of the 16 newly promoted teams who were winless after five matches went straight back down.

These last two seasons may suggest a widening of the gap between the Championship and Premier League although it is important to note that 2022-23 saw all three promoted teams stay up.

Southampton have been the biggest losers so far, and their relegation odds have shortened to 2-5 from 11-8 pre-season while their price to finish bottom has plummeted to 9-4 from 7-1.

Last weekend's home draw with Ipswich was their first point. In the past 20 seasons, all six teams who earned just a solitary point from their opening five fixtures on their top-flight return were relegated.

The diminished threat of a points deduction for Leicester means their relegation odds have lengthened to 8-13 from pre-season quotes of 4-9 while Ipswich are evens from 17-20.

Both have three points and, while those relegation odds remain short, they can take some comfort that three of the five newly promoted sides with that five-game tally in our 20-year sample went on to beat the drop. Admittedly, the most recent of those was Crystal Palace in 2013-14, inspired by the mid-season arrival of manager Tony Pulis.

It is not just Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton who are winless. Palace, Everton and Wolves are yet to break their duck, meaning that, according to Opta, it is the first time in English men's top-flight history that as many as six teams have failed to win any of their opening five fixtures.

The money from the latest TV deals is a major factor in widening the gap between the top two divisions, so it is interesting that Everton and Wolves – two clubs who have slowed their transfer spending most significantly in recent years – are deemed the most likely to get dragged into the fight for survival.

The spread-betting firms' pre-season points-total projections for both sides was 42 but that has fallen to just 36, not far above the current quotes of 32 points for Ipswich and 31 for Leicester.

Wolves and Everton have both conceded 14 goals, the most in the division. Wanderers are aiming to ride out a brutal early run of fixtures while the Toffees will hope their penalty box becomes less porous, and more like what we associate with Sean Dyche's teams defensively, once Jarrad Branthwaite returns from injury.

It is vital that any consideration of statistics at this early stage of the season takes into account the strength of schedule, and on that count things read particularly badly for Southampton.

Their one point has come from the fifth-easiest opening set of fixtures, as judged by opposition projected-points totals.

Home games against Nottingham Forest and Ipswich have already been burned up and Saints could do with a decent return from their next two, against Leicester and Everton, otherwise a pathway to a points total in the mid-30s, likely to be needed to stay up, looks tricky.

After Monday's visit to Bournemouth, Southampton's next two awaydays are at Arsenal and Manchester City.

The Citizens are the only team who have completed more passes than the Saints and Russell Martin's side rank in the top eight for territory metrics such as field tilt and touches in the attacking penalty area. However, those numbers are inflated by the fact that they played for more than an hour against a Newcastle side reduced to ten men.

Southampton have turned that territory into just two goals, mostly due to the division's worst conversion rate, undershooting their expected goals by a whopping 4.9.

The good news is that their conversion rate will almost certainly improve but the bad news is they are likely to have fewer chances as the fixture list bites back.

At the other end of the pitch, Martin's men have hampered themselves by conceding five goals from set pieces, more than any other side, and have made the most errors leading to a goal.

Ipswich scored a late equaliser last Saturday after Saints failed to fully clear a corner but finding the net regularly has also been a problem for the Tractor Boys.

They at least have the caveat of facing the fifth-toughest set of opening fixtures, but that excuse doesn't fly at St Mary's, where their struggles to create big chances was again highlighted as they chased the game having gone behind early.

Ipswich have taken the fewest shots and those they have taken are worth the joint-lowest xG per shot.

Their xG difference of minus 7.7 is the fourth-worst of any Premier League team at this stage of a season since 2017-18, when FBref data became available.

Three of the other four teams who posted minus 7 or worse on that metric were relegated and the Tractor Boys will hope that the exception – Fulham last season – are the most relevant, considering that they faced a similarly tough early set of games.

Both teams have scored in all of Leicester's first five league games although they will do well to maintain their scoring streak at Arsenal on Saturday.

That run has relied on hot finishing, which the Foxes may struggle to maintain if their current levels of chance-creation stay the same.

Creating just 12 shots for only 0.7 xG when chasing the game from the 12th minute at home to struggling Everton last weekend wasn't a great omen as they head into a vital run of fixtures.

Following their trip to Arsenal, Leicester will need to remain clinical in front of goal during upcoming games against Bournemouth, Southampton, Nottingham Forest and Ipswich – a four-match sequence which could define their season.

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