Simon Giles: The impact of fixture lists should not be underestimated as Liverpool flourish and Wolves flounder

A couple of results, good or bad, are all it takes to shift the narrative about a team and, in a low-scoring sport such as football, the odd bad bounce of the ball in a tight game or a skewed run of fixtures can have a massive impact.

A sample-size of ten matches is generally required before firm opinions can be made but it is still possible to pick up on trends that may have some significance.

Before the start of the season, this column highlighted Liverpool and Wolves as the two clubs with the most extreme fixture skew prior to the October international break. Those sides head into this weekend's resumption at the top and bottom of the table.

Despite Liverpool's soft run of fixtures, bookmakers have seen enough from Arne Slot's men to cut their title odds to 7-2 from pre-season quotes of 7-1.

Six wins from seven have allayed fears that the Reds would suffer a drop-off performance-wise or emotionally after Jurgen Klopp's departure.

They were favourites to win the league with just eight games to go last season and arguably the most significant thing to happen in this term's title race is the injury to Rodri, which may lower the bar for Manchester City's challengers to mid-80 points rather than 90-plus.

As the accompanying table shows, the Reds actually have a point fewer from the same seven fixtures in Klopp's farewell season although they won seven of those points from losing positions.

They are yet to face a team projected to finish higher than eighth but have still outcreated their opponents to the extent that their title backers would want to see.

Liverpool's results have been achieved with less action in both goalmouths and new boss Slot will hope that style is more sustainable over the course of the season.

Games against Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa will seriously test Liverpool's improved defensive set-up, especially with first-choice goalkeeper Alisson injured, and the Arsenal and Villa games follow Champions League fixtures against RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen.

Only Chelsea, who visit Anfield on Sunday, have a tougher run of fixtures before the next international break although they will hope their Conference League involvement allows them more midweek rotation.

Manchester City's increasing susceptibility to counter-attacks in the past season or so almost cost them against Fulham last time out but the upcoming fixtures favour them over their rivals in the next month.

Arsenal host Liverpool next weekend and the Gunners also travel to Newcastle and Chelsea either side of a European trip to Inter.

There are some huge games at the bottom of the table with several clashes between the promoted sides, including Southampton against Leicester on Saturday.

It is never ideal to be the 'crisis club' heading into an international break so Saints' fixture against Wolves on November 9 could be huge for managers Russell Martin and Gary O'Neil, who are among the favourites in the sack-race betting.

Wolves have had the toughest set of opponents over the first seven rounds of fixtures but, even so, the Molineux men have been slashed from 4-1 to 6-4 for relegation after picking up just one point.

Five of their seven matches have come against teams projected by the spread-betting firms to finish in the top seven and manager O'Neil pointed out after last month's loss to Newcastle that they would have been "second-favourite in every game". 

That slightly defeatist mentality can rub fans up the wrong way and it was surely not the mindset they had when collecting eight points from the same set of fixtures last term.

Wolves's opponents last time out, Brentford, are one of the best-run clubs in the Premier League. However, they are not one of the division's heaviest hitters so a 5-3 battering at a ground where Wolves won 4-1 last December highlighted just how far things have slipped.

Things get harder for Wanderers before they get easier, with Manchester City at home on Sunday, and Brighton away next week.

Wolves were among the ante-post favourites for the drop last season when O'Neil arrived just days before the opening fixture, and they won just one of their first six games.

A victory against a Citizens side missing Rodri sparked a run that kicked them well clear of the relegation battle and O'Neil, who appeared on Sky's Monday Night Football to break down how they did it, will hope for a similar reset, rebuilding confidence in himself and his team.

One point from seven matches is bad but not fatal. Since 2017-18, there have been 28 top-flight teams who had a seven-game stretch at some point in the season in which they put only one point on the board, and 13 of them – 46 per cent – were relegated.

That drops to 36 per cent, four out of 11, when looking at sides who had a similarly tough set of fixtures as Wolves – as measured by an average opponent league position of eighth or better during their lean run.

The table compares Wolves’s stats from the corresponding fixtures last season with the defensive side the most significant.

They conceded two or more goals in five of the seven corresponding games last term and that has risen to six out of seven this season.

Interestingly, Wolves also conceded at least two expected goals in five of last season's matches but in only two this time around.

Worryingly, those were the two most recent outings including the Brentford horror show in which almost every cross into the box caused trouble. The 4.2 xGA was their worst, barring games in which they had a red card, since FBref records started in 2017.

Overall, then, this season Wolves have been a bit worse but have been punished a lot more.

Only the three relegated sides had a worse xG difference than them last season so they overperformed before winning only one of their last ten games as injuries kicked in.

O'Neil sought to take them forward by evolving their playing style, switching from a back three to a back four and bringing in a new goalkeeper, Sam Johnstone, to improve distribution.

This season they rank bottom for shot-stopping as measured by post-shot xG, a metric that they benefited from topping in two of the last three seasons.

Improving the squad is the best way to take a step forward but Wolves have made almost a £100m profit in the last two seasons while many clubs around them are spending more.

O'Neil probably wishes he had earmarked some of the money banked for a new centre-back rather than a keeper as, even if he wanted to revert to a back three, options are limited after the injury to Yerson Mosquera and sale of Max Kilman.

It is quite possible that things will get better and their class in midfield begins to show as the fixture list eventually relent in November. While O'Neil may have used up the credit he had with Wolves fans, he deserves that opportunity.

However, confidence cannot be turned on like a tap and the fixture skew means Wolves enter those supposedly softer games weighed down with pressure.

They have been playing at a level only just above relegation standard for quite some time and that leaves them vulnerable to a few injuries or a positive run of variance for one of the promoted sides.

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