Simon Giles: Ten Hag's tenure has been a continuous tale of mediocrity

New Manchester United chief executive Omar Berrada stated last week that the club's 150-year anniversary, in 2028, was the target for them to win the Premier League again.

It is a more realistic ambition than those of some of Berrada's predecessors, who in previous off-seasons mistakenly thought they were just a couple of signings away from challenging at the top of the table.

However, last Sunday's shocking 3-0 home defeat to Tottenham again highlighted just how far United have fallen and surely extinguished any remaining flickers of hope that Erik ten Hag could be the manager to lead them to the title.

Berrada and new football director Dan Ashworth officially started work at the club on July 1. Given that they will want to give time to the first manager they appoint, it is possible to see the logic in prioritising modernising the structure around the man in the dugout.

United finished third in Ten Hag's first Premier League season in 2022-23, although their underlying numbers painted them more like the sixth-best side in the division. Last term's eighth-placed finish again relied on them outperforming their metrics.

Given the competitiveness at the top of the Premier League, United needed to improve their process and performance levels just to get back to eighth in 2024-25.

There were signs of small improvements in the opening weeks of the campaign. In Ten Hag's first two seasons his side had been outrunning their numbers and ending up on the right side of a lot of tight games but in the first month of this term they wasted chances and variance pulled them downwards.

Against Spurs, though, United were systematically shambolic and individually error-strewn. While last season Ten Hag could highlight injuries as an excuse, on Sunday he had all of his likely starters available except for Luke Shaw.

Bruno Fernandes's red card, subsequently rescinded, made it virtually impossible for the hosts to come back but they had already been outshot 12-3 when it was 11 versus 11.

The gaps in midfield that plagued the Red Devils for much of last season reappeared. Micky van de Ven followed the example of FC Twente's Bart van Rooij, in the 1-1 Europa League draw at Old Trafford a few days earlier, by rampaging half the length of the pitch unchallenged to set up a goal.

The main factor in United's decline last season was their defensive set-up which saw only bottom club Sheffield United concede more shots than them.

It is a low bar but, prior to the Spurs game, they had at least improved in that department this term and were not such a shots sieve.

Ten Hag's men have allowed 12.2 shots per game (ranked eighth) – down from 17.4 last term – and, discounting red-card-affected minutes, that improves to 11.4 (ranked sixth).

Unfortunately, even though United have allowed fewer shots, they have given up more big chances, with the average chance quality rising significantly.

Assessing them this season is hard as performance levels fluctuate dramatically within games, as well as on a week-to-week basis.

Their games against Fulham, Brighton, Southampton and Crystal Palace all saw 45 to 60 minutes of varying levels of promise but they struggled to maintain it for a whole game.

Their style of play alters dramatically depending on personnel and Ten Hag, who relies on players rather than patterns to solve problems, is yet to find the right balance. 

Their press appeared to have improved against Fulham and Brighton, thanks to the work rate of Mason Mount and Fernandes as 'false nines' but they lacked a presence in the penalty box to apply the scoring touch and became easier to play through as energy levels dropped.

Frontlines containing Joshua Zirkzee and Amad Diallo allow United to retain possession in the final third and sustain attacks better.

However, Zirkzee and Diallo lack the cutting edge of Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Hojlund, who are their best goal threats but whose directness often leads to more end-to-end matches.

Similarly, in midfield they imposed more control and possession trying to build up from the back in the Southampton and Palace games in which Christian Eriksen started. 

The 32-year-old should not be starting for a top side due to his lack of physicality but his technical quality enables a more composed playing style and he requires a more compact formation due to his lack of running power.

New signing Manuel Ugarte was supposed to plug some of the midfield gaps that were exposed last season but the best solution is surely not to allow them to materialise in the first place.

Ugarte made his first league start against Spurs and United reverted back to a direct, transition-heavy gameplan.

The Uruguayan deserves time to settle but his standout ball-winning stats in dominant domestic teams, Sporting and PSG, were less impressive when he stepped up in class in the Champions League.

A lack of goals has been a consistent problem for United under Ten Hag. Despite finishing third in 2022-23 they ranked only seventh for scoring and that has not improved to alleviate their defensive decline – only promoted Southampton have scored fewer than their tally of five in the league this season.

Ten Hag can rightly point to the fact that his side have created a lot more. Their expected-goals total is 10.4, making them the fourth-largest undershooters at this point in the season since FBref records began in 2017-18.

They have hit the woodwork four times and saw a go-ahead goal at Brighton disallowed for a freak offside.

Better variance would perhaps add an extra point or two to their total but that would only move them a couple of places higher in mid-table and the big chances missed by Zirkzee against Liverpool came when they were already 3-0 down.

The £36.5m signing from Bologna will add more when rotating for Hojlund than the injured Anthony Martial did last term but he is a facilitator and a source of link-up for other forwards, rather than a player likely to rack up big shots and goals contributions himself.

Red Devils fans looking for crumbs of comfort will point to the more patient in-possession performances against sides projected to finish outside the top eight.

The average shot count in those games against Fulham, Brighton, Southampton and Palace is 15-9.5 in United's favour. That is more in line with the corresponding figures of 17.2-11.2 in Ten Hag's first season in charge rather than last term, when their chaos-strewn games against lower-ranked opponents saw them outshot 15.7-15.1.

However, that may simply be due to better personnel being available rather than major systematic improvements.

The lack of improvement against top sides remains a concern and perhaps the main positive for under-pressure Ten Hag is that Sunday's opponents Aston Villa were the only top-five side they beat last season. In fact they completed the league double over Villa, whose high defensive line played to United's strengths.

They were fortunate to finish eighth in the Premier League last season and, until they show otherwise, it is hard to rate them as anything other than between the sixth and eighth-best team in the division this term.

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