Simon Giles: Manchester United hoping returning faces and tactical tweaks can give them a chance of FA Cup final upset

Bookmakers rated Manchester United as 3-1 underdogs to spoil neighbours Manchester City’s treble bid in last season’s FA Cup final and pick up their second trophy of what was a promising first campaign under manager Erik ten Hag.

But that early promise has evaporated just one year on and rather than close the gap to their city rivals, the Red Devils have slumped to their lowest Premier League finish in history and are 5-1 to salvage something from a chastening season in Saturday's Wembley showpiece.

It would be understandable if United fans were walking down Wembley Way with a degree of trepidation – a 2-1 United win, seen as their likeliest margin of victory by the layers at 25-1, is the same price as a 5-0 City romp. The Asian handicap markets make City 1.5-goal favourites, so the Old Trafford faithful will hope the trend for relatively tight finals – only three of the last 20 have been decided by more than one goal – continues.

Pep Guardiola’s side won last term’s decider 2-1, although they still had a Champions League final to preserve energy for whereas they can empty the tank in their final fixture of the season this weekend.

If you want an idea of how low the market rates United, they are the fifth-biggest outsiders in the last 20 FA Cup finals. Their match odds rank them between Hull, who finished 16th in the Premier League in 2013-14, and Wigan, who were relegated in 2012-13, in their respective finals against Arsenal and City. 

One morsel of hope for Red Devils fans to cling on to is that Hull took the Gunners to extra-time while Wigan sensationally beat City.

United’s lengthy odds shouldn’t be a surprise when you factor in that most expected-goals (xG) models rank them as a lower mid-table outfit.

The gap between the Red Devils and Premier League champions was clear for all to see in their two league fixtures this term, when Ten Hag’s side were arguably flattered to be beaten 3-0 and 3-1 considering City hammered them 7.3-1.1 on xG across the two fixtures, 47-10 on shots, 17-4 on shots on target, 1,322-582 on completed passes, and 106-22 on touches in the penalty area.

United’s season-long stats are damning, but they will hope that they have little bearing on what they will produce at Wembley, where they will surely name one of their strongest matchday squads for a long time.

Injuries have forced United into fielding 15 different starting centre-back combinations, so their fans will hope the opportunity to name last season’s preferred duo of Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez at the heart of defence increases their effectiveness.

United have won four of the five games in which they’ve been paired this season, although that they’ve still conceded at least twice in four of those five tempers any positivity slightly.

Injuries have undoubtedly hindered the Red Devils this season but a flawed tactical set-up has exposed whoever has been holding the fort at the back.

Put simply, the approach Ten Hag thought would take his side forward this season – namely attempting to force more transitions and high turnovers – has proved counterproductive. But, since their 4-0 nadir at Crystal Palace, there have been signs of a shift towards a more compact set-up.

Their subsequent matches against Arsenal and Brighton, two of the sides closest to City stylistically, have seen United record their second and third highest proportion of short passes attempted as they have seemingly tried to dial down their previous direct and chaotic style.

A respectable 1-0 loss to the Gunners and wins over the Seagulls and Newcastle represented improved showings, although they still relied on their opponents spurning opportunities as they allowed chances worth a combined xG of 5.5.

Ten Hag tested a 4-2-2-2 formation in the last two league games and at least has a few different options Guardiola needs to plan for. For all their systematic flaws United do still have enough individuals capable of magic moments. The problem is City have more, as they showed during their nine-game winning run to close out their fourth successive title, outscoring opponents 33-6.

They haven’t lost a game in which midfielder Rodri has started since February 2023, although their elimination to Real Madrid on penalties in this season’s Champions League offers the blueprint United will hope to follow.

Madrid rode their luck at the back but were clinical when it mattered in the way that Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final and Nottingham Forest and Spurs, who had chances to upset City’s title run-in, were not.

If Saturday's final follows the script we’ve seen for most of the season then a comfortable City win seems inevitable. But returning faces and potential tactical tweaks give United fans more belief than they had a few weeks ago that their side can at least keep it close enough, for long enough, to maybe get lucky.

An awful season on the pitch has at least offered long-term hope with the emergence of some talented youngsters and Ineos’s partial takeover.

To match City on the pitch, United need to catch up off of it. That will take time, and Saturday’s spectacle may be indicative of the short-term pain they have to be prepared to absorb in order to prosper in the long run.

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