Simon Giles: Injuries have hurt Manchester City but defensive improvement is a priority for Pep

After Manchester City lost 2-1 at Brighton on November 9 – their fourth successive defeat in all competitions – manager Pep Guardiola bemoaned: "We cannot do it every three days, four days, with the injury situation we have."

The master tactician is famed for finding solutions to any problems that arise during the course of a season. And, now that the vulnerabilities that had been apparent earlier in the campaign are finally getting punished, Guardiola needs to have found some inspiration during the international break as City embark on a tough run of fixtures.

They won one in five either side of the November internationals last season and the run from late autumn to Christmas, once the Champions League is in full swing, has historically been their most troublesome time of the year.

Guardiola prefers working with a smaller squad than most top managers and he is happy to play the long game, rotating his players early in the season so they maintain high levels deeper into the campaign.

But injuries have denied him that opportunity in 2024-25 and a group of players who have played a lot of minutes across the past few seasons suddenly looks thin.

Of course, not all injuries are equal. Having Ballon d'Or winner Rodri ruled out for the season after playing only 65 minutes is close to the worst-case scenario, leaving City's midfield light in physicality and advanced in age.

Despite that setback, City still picked up 19 of 21 points in the games that Rodri missed prior to their recent downturn in form.

They rode their luck in several of those matches but that tally suggests that the additional recent absence of Ruben Dias and John Stones, compounded by knocks to Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake, finally proved too much for City to handle.

Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish also missed the last few games while Kevin De Bruyne has been eased back slowly, all of which increased the Citizens' reliance on striker Erling Haaland.

The return of some of those senior players after the internationals will improve efficiency in both boxes but the middle of the park remains a concern.

Charges over alleged breaches of financial regulations and the uncertainty created by Guardiola waiting until this week to extend his contract possibly explain why there were fewer summer incomings than ideal. City may be more active in the January transfer window but it is worth remembering that even Rodri needed a season to fit in properly.

As the accompanying table shows, even if Guardiola is able to make his usual improvements in the second half of the season, he will be doing it from a lower starting point than usual.

City still have the technical quality to control games for long periods, retaining their usual top ranking in all possession and territory stats, but they are more exposed when things break down.

There has been a slight uptick in shots allowed, although they still rank first in the division, so the most significant shift is the increase in big chances allowed.

The average chance conceded by City is one that opponents would expect to convert 15 per cent of the time. The only time that figure was higher at this stage of the season was in 2019-20, when Liverpool were runaway Premier League champions.

City have conceded 11.8 per cent of this term's chances from Opta-defined 'fast breaks' – the highest proportion in the league – and their next two opponents, Tottenham and Liverpool, are the top two scorers in that fashion.

Guardiola's men have conceded more than two expected goals in three of their last five games, which is the same amount as they did in all of the last two seasons.

On the plus side, the two times City had been conceding at least a goal a game at this point in the campaign, Guardiola managed to improve things, and they let in around 0.2 goals fewer per game for the rest of the season. But this is the worst starting point City have had, especially considering their easier-than-average fixtures.

They have won only five of their last 13 matches against Saturday's visitors Tottenham, including last month's EFL Cup defeat which started their four-game skid.

That cup exit may prove to be a blessing as City will get a rare free midweek between December's league games against Manchester United and Aston Villa. They remain 8-13 to go straight into the Champions League round of 16 despite their 4-1 upset at Sporting.

So the two league defeats, against Bournemouth and Brighton, appear to be the most costly results. There should be improvement when a few of the recent absentees return but City's performances and underlying data – even when they were winning earlier in the campaign – suggest their margin of superiority over opponents is lower this term, increasing the likelihood of more dropped points.

Injury 'luck' is volatile and Liverpool have a relatively clean bill of health at the moment. The Reds, ironically, may be benefiting from fewer players having too many miles in their legs due to the time they missed because of injury last term. 

The Citizens have overcome bigger deficits during the Guardiola era but the data suggests those were with better versions. Even if the champions step up from their current level, this still looks the most beatable City side over a full season that we have seen for a while. But they aren't beaten yet and this week's reports that Pep has agreed a contract extension suggest he is up for the challenge.

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