Simon Giles: How Chelsea have kept moving in the right direction

Rival supporters have taken plenty of pleasure in mocking Chelsea’s scattergun transfer policy and inconsistent results since Todd Boehly's 2022 takeover.

However, with the club sitting in second place in the Premier League following three straight wins and with an expensively assembled young squad apparently coming good, it's Blues fans who may be about to have the last laugh.

Having finished 12th in 2022-23, Chelsea spent much of last season stuck in mid-table before a late surge helped them grab sixth spot and a place in the Conference League.

That surge wasn’t enough for manager Mauricio Pochettino to retain his job, however, with the Argentinian only really stumbling into a system that worked when it was too late.

After Enzo Fernandez underwent a season-ending hernia operation following a 5-0 humiliation at Arsenal in April, Pochettino finally found the central balance that had eluded him for most of the season, moving Marc Cucurella into midfield from full-back as they closed out the campaign with five wins and a draw.

The graph below charts the rolling average of chance creation in their matches and shows how improvement at the end of last season has accelerated under new manager Enzo Maresca, with the green line representing expected goals (xG) created above the red line representing xG conceded for the most consistent period, and by the greatest margin.

Their actual results lagged behind their underlying metrics for much of last term, but we now have a season-long sample of games that paints them comfortably as a top-four side.

Chelsea have picked up 72 points in their last 38 games, 11 more than fifth-best Aston Villa, trailing only Manchester City (87), Liverpool (86), and Arsenal (84), explaining why their odds for a top-four finish are now just 1-3 from pre-season quotes of 6-4.

Similarly 73 points is the midpoint of the spread-betting quotes for their end-of-season total. 

While not a league-winning total, a title charge can certainly not be ruled out, particularly if pacesetters Liverpool follow the Gunners and Citizens in slowing to projected 80-point pace.

Maresca has played down their chances, but Chelsea's 14-1 title odds will contract if they can continue to post dominant victories from a run of fixtures against Brentford, Everton, Fulham, Ipswich, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Wolves, following Sunday’s visit to Tottenham.

Thanks to Maresca's attention to detail, their in-possession approach and shape appear better this season, but Chelsea still need to prove themselves when it comes to consistently breaking down low blocks.

Under Pochettino, their attackers were at their best when given space to run into, but they dropped 21 points against sides who finished 13th or lower.

They ranked 12th for points per game in such fixtures, and Pochettino’s solutions to try and break down settled defences often left them vulnerable to counter-attacks, as they ranked only 14th defensively when facing sides towards the bottom, with a 4-2 home defeat to Wolves and 2-2 draws to basement sides Sheffield United and Burnley particular low points.

After early Stamford Bridge draws with Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest this term, the signs in recent weeks have been more encouraging.

There’s still scope for improvement at the back, but they are conceding 1.07 goals per game, down from 1.66 last term, and while that is a slight overachievement based on their underlying numbers, they should concede penalties at a less frequent rate, with only Wolves having committed more fouls in the box.

The injury sustained by Wesley Fofana in last weekend’s 3-0 win over Aston Villa was a blow however, as the only league game he’d missed prior to that was their 2-1 away loss to Liverpool.

Sunday’s opponents Spurs have defensive injuries of their own, and both sides will fancy their chances at exploiting any gaps left in behind.

Blues striker Nicolas Jackson is a prime example that if you keep getting in good positions the goals will eventually follow.

Like last season, he ranks third for chance quality, as measured by non-penalty xG per shot taken and, like his all-round game, his conversion rate has improved from 18 per cent to 26 per cent.

While they were not in Europe last season, Chelsea were hampered by significant injuries, but this term Maresca has benefited from using the Conference League to rotate heavily and give minutes to fringe players to keep them happy.

Despite some testing games against Newcastle, Arsenal and Aston Villa, they’ve picked up 12 points in their six league matches following midweek European fixtures. 

In contrast, top-four rivals Villa and Spurs, who finished above them last season, have picked up only five and four points in their five post-European outings.

Ange Postecolou’s Spurs are hampered by another Thursday-to-Sunday turnaround, and a day less to recover, ahead of this weekend’s clash having faced Bournemouth on Thursday evening.

Chelsea were 5-2 outsiders for this fixture last season when they handed nine-man Spurs their first defeat of their campaign, winning 4-1, and their status as 7-5 favourites this time around is testament to the changing horizons at both clubs.

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