Simon Giles: Gunners' short-term pains could be masking their long-term potential

Arsenal were the Premier League title favourites heading into the last international break but last weekend’s 2-0 loss at Bournemouth means they are now 5-2 and only marginally shorter than 11-4 Liverpool, who they will face in Sunday's crunch clash at the Emirates.

Injuries have played a part, including to captain Martin Odegaard, but self-inflicted wounds have been more damaging. Three red cards have forced Arsenal to play almost a quarter of the campaign a man short.

Referees are being more picky – yellow cards are averaging 5.2 per game in the Premier League this season compared to 4.4 and 3.7 the previous two campaigns – and the Gunners have fallen on the wrong side of the law too often.

Assessing them is hard as their schedule has featured easy-on-paper home games and tough away tests, which has made for an extreme compilation of stats.

Their numbers have taken a hammering in the minutes when they’ve been reduced to ten men, but they also dominated the promoted sides in games that felt more nervy due to the order of the goals.

They rank fifth for expected-goal difference, a metric they topped last season, becoming the first team not managed by Pep Guardiola to lead that statistic since his arrival, and they rank worse than mid-table in many defensive and territorial stats.

That’s clearly unrepresentative, but if we only look at minutes all sides have played 11 v 11, as the table below shows, the picture is more promising.

Doing so has its own sampling issues, as we are now discarding the half they played at Manchester City which would probably have dented their stats, albeit to a lesser degree, even if Leandro Trossard hadn’t been dismissed. 

A number in between the two, which would see them rank second, is probably the fairest reflection of their confusing season so far.

Stylistically the Gunners have been more direct at times this season, although how much of that is intended or as a result of both the red cards and Odegaard’s absence is up for debate.

They aren’t purring, but Arteta has built a side capable of winning in a number of different ways – one which has been to manage and grind out results more often than expected.

Arteta has doubled down on physicality and winning duels, and the resulting football hasn’t always sparked. The Gunners have relied on Bukayo Saka to make things work from an attacking perspective, while keeping things compact at the back.

With that in mind, Saka’s potential absence this weekend through injury is a big concern, as is the break-up of their outstanding centre-back partnership caused by William Saliba’s suspension.

Saliba was ever present last term but he missed the 2022-23 run-in as Arsenal's title challenge came off the rails, and their points-per-game figure falls from 2.4 to 1.6 without him.

That would be partly mitigated if Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori are available, but both have fitness concerns of their own.

Liverpool passed their toughest domestic test so far under Arne Slot by beating Chelsea 2-1 last Sunday.

They conceded more possession and territory than we expect at Anfield, and future opponents will have noted how Chelsea succeeded in progressing the ball in the first hour, but ultimately it yielded only two shots on target.

The Reds have conceded only three goals and their xG-conceded ranks just behind Arsenal in the 11-v-11 stats, although they have had a soft schedule.

They had the best underlying attacking numbers under Jurgen Klopp last season but trailed the eventual top two by a greater margin defensively.

Under Slot, they are different rather than better. They only faltered in the closing stretch last term, so similar performance levels, a more pragmatic approach to avoid falling behind as often, and better luck with injuries looks like a formula to again contend.

And that’s because Manchester City have shown more vulnerabilities than usual.

Questioning the Citizens this early has been a mistake in previous seasons, but Rodri’s injury feels like a more significant factor, unless they reinforce in January.

City will surely boost their numbers against Southampton this weekend but they lack physicality in midfield.

All the title contenders have questions to answer and perhaps the current big three are just very good, each capable of low-to-mid 80-point totals, rather than the juggernauts of previous campaigns.

Arsenal were stodgy for the first part of last season, scoring freely only from January, and when they get key players back and keep them on the pitch, they may turn out to be the most reliable long-term prospect.

They’ve done a good job of hiding it so far and have the most short-term questions to answer. 

Their depth is being tested and they need to survive the upcoming demanding schedule before they can hope to benefit from players returning and an easier run after the November international break.

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