Simon Giles: Gunners at full stretch as critical period looms

Being a great team is not enough to guarantee beating Manchester City in a 38-game Premier League campaign.

You need fortune on your side as well and Arsenal fans can be forgiven for feeling that Lady Luck has deserted them in the early weeks of the season.

Declan Rice did not benefit from football's unwritten rule that a second yellow card usually has a higher threshold in the home fixture against Brighton last time out.

Rarely has toe-poking the ball a couple of inches had such damaging consequences as it led to Rice being sent off for a second booking against the Seagulls, causing the Gunners to drop points in a 1-1 draw and also ruling him out of Sunday’s north-London derby at Tottenham.

At least Mikel Arteta had the international break in which to work out how to cope with Rice's absence but his plans were thrown out the window when captain Martin Odegaard returned from Norway on crutches.

With new signing Mikel Merino injured in his first training session for the club, Arsenal are set to face their bitterest rivals without their entire first-choice midfield.

Prior to the Brighton game, the early betting for the derby had Arsenal as 10-11 favourites but they are now out to 13-10.

They were lauded as the best out-of-possession side in Europe last term but it is hard to see how their pressing can remain as intense and structured without both of their advanced midfielders.

Rice switched to a box-to-box role halfway through last season, emphasising his immense ability to cover ground, counter-press and pick up loose balls.

Odegaard topped most chance-creation metrics and no player won possession in the attacking third more than the Arsenal skipper, demonstrating his importance both with and without the ball.

When only Rice was out, it was possible that Arteta could have moved Kai Havertz back into midfield, where he began last season, with Gabriel Jesus expected to be fit to start up front.

But the absence of Odegaard as well may force Arsenal into a double pivot in midfield, with 32-year-old Jorginho partnering 31-year-old Thomas Partey. 

That represents a huge drop-off in physicality and would likely see them drop deeper and cede more control than usual although they demonstrated their defensive discipline when retreating in a mid-to-low block to secure a 0-0 draw at Manchester City in March.

Spurs will look to flood central areas but a lot of their 20 shots against Newcastle last time out came from distance.

If Arsenal can similarly limit Tottenham's clear sights at goal then they will hope to exploit the space the Lilywhites always leave on the counter – Bukayo Saka's breakaway goal in Arsenal's 3-2 win in this fixture last term is testament to that. 

The Gunners also exposed Spurs' set-piece frailties, scoring twice from corners, although Rice and Odegaard's absence deprives them of two of their dead-ball specialists. 

A new rules directive to punish blocking in the box may also aid Spurs, as Arsenal were masters of that tactic last campaign, but it is still too early to quantify its effect.

Rice was forced off at half-time in the first game between the sides in 2023-24. Both halves finished 1-1, with shot counts of 7-7 and 6-6 in either period, although Rice's replacement Jorginho was caught in possession for Tottenham's equaliser.

Partey is the midfielder most likely to be phased out when Merino is fit but he suddenly has a vital role to play. Arteta values his ability to thread progressive passes through midfield although he is less adept than he used to be at defending space and tracking back when teams turn them.

That has happened more often this season with Rice, by his own admission, being "rusty" in the opening three games. 

He appeared to be in better form for England over the past week and Arsenal need him back to his best after suspension.

They face seven games in 21 days, with visits to Atalanta and Manchester City, who will have an extra day's rest, completing a tricky week that is sure to test their depleted depth.

Arteta prefers working with a smaller squad of players. However, the departures of Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira mean he may have to ask 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri to learn on the job and give possible out-of-position minutes for players such as Jurrien Timber, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Leandro Trossard.

Eddie Nketiah’s sale didn’t prompt the spending spree some Gunners fans expected, but the arrival on loan of Raheem Sterling adds more options across the frontline, offering Saka the prospect of more rest.

Arsenal's performance levels last term, particularly defensively, meant they had the ability to win either the league or Champions League.

Maintaining a challenge in both competitions proved just beyond them, however. They dropped costly points at the end of the busy Christmas period and lost to Aston Villa between the two legs of April's Champions League quarter-final defeat to Bayern Munich.

Arteta leant heavily on his key performers, who stayed relatively healthy, and getting more from their rotation options was a possible route to staying the course better in the busier stretches.

The Gunners are unlikely to exert their usual control against Tottenham and, with midfield depth already being tested, they need their difference makers in both penalty boxes to stand up.

They are targeting a third straight win at Spurs in order to avoid heading to the Etihad next week with the little margin for error the Citizens grant title contenders already stretched.

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