Simon Giles: Cherries ripe for further success under impressive Iraola

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Arsenal went off 3-4 shots for last weekend’s north London derby, the shortest price they’ve been at local rivals Spurs since they were 8-11 in 2004-05, the season after their famed Invincibles swept to the Premier League title.

Manchester City were 8-11 shots to win at Tottenham during last season's treble-winning campaign, showing that, despite not yet boasting the trophies to match City, the markets rate Mikel Arteta’s side as being close to the champion's level.

That’s due in part to their excellent results, but it also highlights the role underlying data plays in bookmakers’ prices as Arsenal currently rank first for expected-goal difference and are creating more chances than their opposition to a similar extent to City during their run of title success.

Goals change games, so breaking down how and when teams have racked up their stats can add further insight.

Performance across all scorelines is important, but arguably the most vital gamestate is when matches are level because this is when sides try to impose their gameplan on their opponents.

According to Understat's data, this is where Manchester City (+1.42) perform better than Arsenal (+1.17) for xG difference per 90 during the minutes their matches are tied.

Neither side has spent much time trailing, but again it’s the Citizens who have the much better record when they have gone a goal behind and had to search for an equaliser. It illustrates how they’ve earned their position as title favourites by being the best side in the most important gamestates.

The area Arsenal have a large margin of superiority over City is in games where they are already ahead. There’s value to extending leads, but the returns are diminishing.

The Gunners are the top scorers in the Premier League but have failed to score five times compared to City’s three, showing how occasionally their ability to create and convert has been stifled when they haven’t forged a lead.

Emotion carried Liverpool through an injury crisis, but the Reds eventually dug themselves too many holes to keep making comebacks from.

They’ve been particularly wasteful in front of goal in the past month, and those misses have come at crucial times, converting just 33 goals from an xG of 42.98 when games were tied – only Everton have converted at a lower rate at that critical gamestate.

If there’s one team whose performances jump out from the page based on their record when games are level, it is Bournemouth.

Last weekend’s 3-0 win over Brighton means that Andoni Iraola’s side have now set a club record for Premier League points with three games still remaining.

Iraola was under pressure after failing to win any of his first nine games but only the top four have won more points than Bournemouth since November 1 – 42 from 25 games. 

That total omits what was a tough run early fixtures, so it is even more impressive that across the entire season the Cherries rank sixth in xG difference and fourth in actual goal difference for the minutes games are level.

It’s helped Bournemouth take the lead 24 times in their 35 league outings – only four sides have led more often. And while they haven’t always held on, that’s perhaps due to having less depth than many of the more expensively assembled squads in the division.

That they have been able to impose their style on to matches with regularity speaks highly of Iraola’s methods and its potential for even further improvement if the club can continue to make astute transfer decisions.

Both Roberto De Zerbi and Erik ten Hag have found life more difficult in their second seasons as opponents increasingly exposed the weak links in their set-up, something which Iraola will also need to be wary of.

Bournemouth’s aggressive style has come unstuck against the top five, losing seven of nine matches to those sides by two goals or more. But many of those defeats came in the opening weeks of the season, including a 4-0 reverse to Saturday's opponents Arsenal, and a more competitive showing at the Emirates would underline the strides the Cherries have made under Iraola this season.

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