Simon Giles: No fluke about Bournemouth's push for Europe under inspirational Iraola

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The tactical level of the Premier League has never been higher so, if a team have a soft spot, opposition analysts will eventually find it.

Erik ten Hag, Roberto De Zerbi and, increasingly, Ange Postecoglou are managers who were lauded in their first season in the division but suffered from second-season syndrome.

Last season, Andoni Iraola led Bournemouth to their highest Premier League points total of 48 but, rather than regressing in his second campaign, his team are flying.

The Cherries' recent demolitions of top-five sides – they won 4-1 at Newcastle and thumped Nottingham Forest 5-0 at home – mean they are receiving the wider acclaim that their underlying data suggests they have merited for much of the season.

Most expected-points models, based on expected goals, rank Bournemouth in the top three of the Premier League. Even if you filter out penalties – they have been awarded two more than any side in the division – and minutes affected by red cards, another area in which they have benefited, their data still translates to that of a legitimate top-five or top-six side.

Outstanding performances on the pitch and in the dugout have propelled Bournemouth and Forest's rise. 

But while the Tricky Trees' run into the Champions League places has been turbocharged by above-average luck in front of goal, and with injuries, the Cherries are pushing for Europe despite misfortune on both those fronts.

They are the biggest underachievers, compared to xG, when games are level but those shot-conversion problems from earlier in the season have, thankfully, swung the other way in the last couple of weeks, mitigating their recent injury crisis.

Bournemouth have scored 12 goals from their last batch of 50 shots, having scored four, four, six, seven, three and three from their previous batches of 50 attempts at goal.

Justin Kluivert has picked a good time to start firing unstoppable strikes from outside the box. His ninth-minute goal against Forest last weekend was crucial as the Cherries became only the fifth side in 23 games to score first against Nuno's men, forcing the visitors into the chasing game-state that suits them least.

There are plenty of xG sceptics but even the basic stats give substance to the Cherries' dreams of playing European football next season.

Over the past 38 Premier League games, equivalent to a full season, only Arsenal (87), Liverpool (84), Manchester City (80), Chelsea (72) and Newcastle (68) have earned more points than Bournemouth's 61. Forest and Aston Villa are next best with 59.

Tactical trends are constantly evolving and Bournemouth and Forest are thriving by being different.

While many teams in the division are obsessed with overloading central areas and passing out from the back – to varying degrees of competence – Iraola and Nuno's sides rate towards the bottom for possession.

Bournemouth instead rank second for long balls and for crosses, exploiting the space that opponents vacate on the flanks with their ball-carrying wide forwards and overlapping left-back Milos Kerkez.

Iraola played under Marcelo Bielsa and has spoken of Bielsa's influence on his coaching ethos. Direct balls, fast attacks and a suffocating press mean the Cherries flourish by engineering organised chaos which they are best placed to capitalise on.

They overwhelm sides by regaining possession through high turnovers and winning second balls, leading to more situations in which opposition defences cannot get into their settled defensive shape.

The out-of-possession excellence is testament to an outstanding coaching job that prioritises the collective.

Every player knows his role, and those of his teammates, enabling them to react and make instant decisions as to which opposition player it is their responsibility to put pressure on.

And because the collective dynamic is so well drilled they have been able to maintain their excellence despite a recent injury crisis. Bournemouth's system does not rely on one player's individual strength to make it work, in the way that Spurs, for example, are heavily reliant on the pace of centre-back Micky van de Ven.

Winger Dango Ouattara has slotted effectively into a centre-forward role after the injuries to Evanilson and Enes Unal while midfielder Lewis Cook has got the job done at right-back.

Bournemouth's on-field synergy is undoubtedly helped by everyone working with the same vision off the pitch.

Their transfer business since the takeover of the club in December 2022 has been excellent. They have consistently nailed their recruitment of players in the £10m to £25m range, which has given Iraola a versatile squad of players with the correct profile for his style of play.

They have spent more than most traditional lower to mid-table sides but still considerably less than Chelsea, with whom they are level on points this season.

Iraola's success means he will inevitably be linked with big jobs and he is currently joint-favourite with bookmakers who are betting on the next permanent Tottenham manager.

His recent results with an injury-ravaged side do not reflect well on Spurs boss Postecoglou, who faces a similar crisis, although Iraola benefits from having to stretch his depleted resources across only one game a week, rather than Tottenham's two.

You cannot outrun injuries forever, though, and Iraola's style requires intensity. Any club in European competition who snap him up before he has shown how his sides cope with the demands of a more congested fixture list would, perhaps, be taking a chance. Bournemouth's recent injuries occurred just after the busy Christmas schedule.

The other big question for interested sides further up the pyramid is determining just how much the rewards of Iraola's out-of-possession excellence would be negated by coaching a team who are naturally expected to have more of the ball.

Injecting chaos and variance into matches is a plus when you are trying to punch upwards and unsettle superior sides on paper but potentially less useful when the boot is on the other foot.

Iraola has proved masterful at dragging opponents who want to play with control down to the level of his teams.

His Rayo Vallecano side took ten points out of a possible 12 against Barcelona over two seasons and Bournemouth have defeated Arsenal and Manchester City this term.

Interestingly, they have won only three of the seven games in which they have had more possession than their opponents. All five of their goals in the 2-1 win at Ipswich and 3-2 success at Everton were scored in the 87th minute or later, turning defeats into victories.

The Cherries have also been frustrated during home draws with Crystal Palace and West Ham and they lost to lowly Leicester and ten-man Brighton.

At the other end of the spectrum, they have won five out of seven when having 40 per cent or less possession and the one loss was a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in which they missed a penalty.

This weekend's opponents Liverpool have the best variety between control and directness of the sides at the top of the table and they are the only team to beat Bournemouth convincingly this term,  winning 3-0 at Anfield in September.

Iraola has proved himself to be a deep thinker who maximises his resources wherever he has been so he may well adapt and come up with the answers if a big club comes knocking.

The Cherries tried passing out from the back more during his opening winless run of ten games last term, but it didn’t suit the players, leading to several costly errors and a sensible shift in style.

Rayo Vallecano ranked second for possession in their promotion season from the Segunda Division and the same group of players finished mid-table twice in La Liga with mid-ranking possession numbers and impressive shot data.

Problem solving is a key attribute of a top manager and Iraola has answered every question posed of him so far.

If Bournemouth have to balance European involvement next term then that would provide a fresh challenge for him, while giving a useful data point for clubs further up the chain.

The Cherries have been excellent on and off the pitch in recent seasons and, for the good of the league, it would be great to see them keep their best assets for at least another campaign before the better-financed vultures come circling.

Read more from Simon Giles . . .

Postecoglou project has high ceiling but inefficiency could bring it crashing down 

Potter's West Ham revolution requires patience but Everton need instant impact from Moyes 

Defensive strength boosts highflying Forest's chances of FA Cup glory 

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