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Mark Langdon

Mark Langdon: You need to know when it's time to say no

Mark Langdon's betting analysis and strategy

Aston Villa celebrate their win at Leicester
Aston Villa celebrate their win at LeicesterCredit: Michael Regan

Last weekend I wrote there would be nothing to moan about if I could land the double of Aston Villa beating Leicester and getting my hands on an Oasis ticket. 

So I guess now is the time to moan as despite Villa doing the business at the King Power it was a far more frustrating day navigating Ticketmaster's website.

The short answer is I am not currently going to Oasis – but the opportunity was there as a mate eventually made his way to the front of the online queue and asked if there was any interest in paying £350 following the outrageous dynamic ticket price increases.

To me it was a fairly simple answer and it was not only the steep fees involved. I have seen them multiple times, as well as Liam solo, and the best bit about Oasis was being together with mates. This was no longer an option as we could only get a maximum of four tickets, so it was with a heavy heart, but thankfully heavier wallet, that the decision was made to let the tickets slide away on the shrewd presumption more dates would soon be made available.

But the dynamic ticket price debacle got me thinking about betting and how you need to walk away if the odds are no longer what you wanted.

Even the best teams will lose on occasion and the worst ones will occasionally win –yes, even San Marino, who ended a run of 140 games dating back to April 2004 without success in Thursday's 1-0 triumph over Liechtenstein – and so it's all about weighing up at what point you say no to the bet you had intended to place if you are suddenly getting a worse deal than you had assumed.

I have used the analogy previously so long-time readers will have to forgive me returning to an old favourite, but imagine going into a shop to buy a banana. You really fancy a banana but when you get to the fruit section the price of the banana has gone bananas and it is much more expensive than normal. 

Maybe if it's only going up one per cent you'll swallow it (hopefully not whole), but what if it's five or ten per cent more expensive or in the case of a trip to Florida this summer when I saw them being sold individually at $2.50 (£1.90)? At what point do you learn to say no and take a look at the other fruit options available?

You didn't massively want an apple, but it's on sale and looks a lot better value than the banana. And it's the same with betting. 

Villa look a good bet to beat Leicester at 4-5, but where does the fun stop? What if they are 8-13? If Unai Emery's side go to 8-15 does it turn a bet on Villa into a potential lay?

There are some things that stack up differently. If you were desperate to get home after a late night and the only option was a surcharged Uber you might not have a choice. However, in betting there is always a choice, including not betting at all if the price you want disappears.

That's why I would suggest pricing up a game or an event before you have seen any odds from bookmakers, and when it comes to the increasingly popular high-margin bet builders even a novice punter should have an idea of what the minimum price they want to accept before parting with their cash.

The fear of missing out is real, but you need to know when to say no. 

Now all I need to do is secure tickets for one of these two new September Oasis dates, otherwise it might be a case of standing outside on Wembley Way and listening from there. It's not as good as being inside but it's got to be better value than paying £350.


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I'll have nothing to moan about if Oasis and Villa double comes in

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