Mark Langdon: Pessimistic about goals in title showdown

When I first joined the Racing Post's sports desk many moons ago there used to be something called a pessimism penalty that would result in a small amount of money changing hands from one colleague to another if they were deemed fatalistic.

One person would congratulate others on a winning bet before it had actually been cashed as everyone knew it was going to win. A horse miles clear after jumping the last, a tennis player serving for the match with plenty of breaks of serve in hand or other such types of certainties were often cheered in before the Fat Lady had cleared her lungs. But if the recipient of the goodwill gesture refused to join in with the "oi oi" celebrations, and so much as dared to suggest the winning punt wasn't quite over the line, they had to pay a £1 forfeit to whichever person was first to shout out "pessimism penalty".

Without wishing to be a killjoy I may need to get my £1 out because I am feeling pretty pessimistic about Sunday's Premier League title showdown between Manchester City and Arsenal at the Etihad.

On paper it should be a classic. 

Two great teams with great players and managers in Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta who were cut from the same cloth, which might be part of the problem given they know each other inside out following their time working together in Manchester.

The importance of the match cannot be downplayed. If City were to win it would bring back all the self-doubts of Arsenal from last season's wobble, while avoiding defeat would be a statement result from the Gunners, who would almost certainly remain top with a victory unless Liverpool go goal-crazy against Brighton.

However, the reverse fixture was a dreadful 90 minutes which saw only three shots on target and just 16 attempts in the entire match, and was settled by Arsenal winger Gabriel Martinelli's late goal in a game where Fbref.com's expected goals figure had it 0.5-0.4 slightly in City's favour. 

City, one point behind Arsenal and Liverpool with ten games remaining,  have been involved in a number of low-scoring matches against the stronger teams this season. 

Only six goals have been scored in four games against their fellow top-four outfits and the chaotic 3-3 draw with a Tottenham team missing all of their centre-backs is the only match against the top five to go over 2.5 goals. Their FA Cup match at Spurs finished 1-0 with a set-piece goal via Nathan Ake on 88 minutes. 

Low-scoring games don't have to be boring, as was proved by the 1-1 draw at Anfield earlier this month when City and Liverpool played out a thrilling contest, but their draw by the same score at the Etihad back in November had few memorable moments.

Maybe an early goal will change the whole dynamic of the match and we could be in for one of those classics which leads Premier League Years a decade from now. But Arsenal arrive at the Etihad with the strongest defence in the Premier League and a recent trend for using four centre-backs in front of David Raya.

On that front Arteta has copied Guardiola, who preached defensive solidity in the wide areas en route to last season's treble. Dropping Kyle Walker for the Champions League final was an example of a safety-first approach in the biggest match of the lot. It worked as City beat Inter 1-0.

This does not have quite the magnitude of a Champions League final, but you can call me a pessimist all you like, the majority of big matches tend to be tight and under 2.5 goals is my bet at 11-10. And if it does end up in a Liverpool versus Newcastle style 4-4, I will gladly lose my money.

Read more from Mark Langdon . . .

Phil Foden out wide is no left-field decision 

Jurgen Klopp v Pep Guardiola is a Premier League masterpiece 

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