Liverpool rewarded with a kind route to the Champions League final but Manchester City must run the gauntlet
Jamie Griffith analyses the routes to the Champions League final for the five British sides
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Even a 3-2 defeat to PSV on the final matchday was not enough to knock Liverpool off the Champions League summit as Arne Slot guided his side to seven wins from eight and only losing in Eindhoven with a heavily rotated squad.
And the Reds’ reward for a stellar league phase is a relatively kind passage to the final.
Liverpool will face either Brest, Monaco, Benfica or Paris St-Germain in the round of 16, and only the Parisians look likely to provide the Premier League leaders with a meaningful test.
Friday’s draw in Switzerland will decide who faces who in the playoff round and last 16. The fixtures are based on seedings but each team can face one of two possible opponents, to be drawn at random.
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As a result of their kind run, Liverpool will avoid any of the top-seven outright favourites until at least the semi-finals and they have been installed as favourites to lift the trophy for the first time since 2019.
However, while the new-look league phase suited Liverpool and has handed them a fairly smooth passage to Munich, the same cannot be said for Manchester City.
Pep Guardiola’s side endured a nightmare league phase, winning just two of their first seven games and requiring a win in their final match against Club Brugge.
The 2023 winners made tough work of that final assignment, too, trailing 1-0 at half-time before fighting back to land a 3-1 victory, with their reward for that comeback being the toughest route to the final of any side.
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Manchester City, along with 200-1 outright shots Celtic, will face either Bayern Munich or reigning European champions Real Madrid in the playoff round to even reach the last 16.
Should the British sides come through those tricky ties, things will not get much easier, as a clash with La Liga title challengers Atletico Madrid or German champions Bayer Leverkusen would await.
Celtic, beaten 4-2 by Aston Villa in their last league-phase match, are unlikely to make it that far but City could, assuming Guardiola steadies the ship by then.
That would open up the chance of a heavyweight quarter-final tie with Arsenal, who are 6-1 for outright glory after landing a spot in the last 16.
City’s dreadful league phase means their route is far tougher than Liverpool’s and they are now 9-1 for the trophy.
Aston Villa’s reward for a top-eight finish will be a winnable last-16 clash with either Sporting, Club Brugge, Atalanta or Borussia Dortmund, but their journey could come to an end in the quarters, where they will probably face Liverpool or Barcelona, and they are 40-1 in the outright market.
Arsenal, meanwhile, may have to beat Milan or Juventus in the last 16 if they are to set up an all-British quarter-final with City, assuming the English champions navigate their tricky prior rounds, of course.
Now read . . .
Simon Giles: No fluke about Bournemouth's push for Europe under inspirational Iraola
Joe Casey: The challenges that Manchester City face to secure a top-four finish this season
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