Kevin Pullein: How much will winning the title affect Liverpool?

Does winning the Premier League affect a team in games they still have to play?

Liverpool became English champions with a record seven games to spare. They beat the previous record of five held jointly by Manchester City (2017-18), Manchester United (2000-01, also 1907-08) and Everton (1984-85).

On Thursday Liverpool lost 4-0 at Manchester City, who they had succeeded as champions. How will they fare in the six games they have left?

There are other records they could break – most points, biggest gap to runners-up, most wins. Will they go for as many as they can get? Or will they set a higher priority on being fresh and fit for the start of next season, when they will want to retain the title and win other trophies? That is probably more than two months away.

I studied teams who won the Premier League before their last game. There were 19 of them. Some were affected in different ways than others. Considered together as a group, though, results declined.

You can compare results in various ways – points per game, proportion of games won, drawn and lost, goals scored and conceded. On those three measurements performances declined by between 15 and 18 per cent. Broadly speaking, we could say the playing level dropped by about one-sixth.

Best bet

Lecce to take most corners
0.5pt 15-2 BoyleSports

Back Lecce to take most corners at Sassuolo at 15-2 with BoyleSports.

Lecce took most corners in only one of their previous 14 Serie A away games. That was in December at current bottom-club Brescia, where unusually they had 61 per cent possession. They were chasing the game – because they somehow ended up losing 3-0. That was Brescia’s only home win so far.

More likely than not, Sassuolo will take most corners today. Much more likely than not. But the chance that Lecce will top the flag-kick count might not be quite as remote as the odds suggest.

What sort of game should we anticipate?

The result-related odds, which sound reasonable, imply a 63 per cent chance of a home win, a 21 per cent chance of a draw and a 16 per cent chance of an away win. In a typical Serie A game with those result expectations fair odds about the away team taking most corners would be 3-1.

Sassuolo are just below mid-table. With nine games to play they are 12 points above Lecce, who occupy the first relegation place, and six points below what will probably be the last Europa League place. Sassuolo next season are unlikely to be playing in Serie B or a Uefa competition.

Lecce would move out of the drop zone with a win. So they have an incentive to attack while scores are level and even if they should fall behind by a goal, perhaps even two goals. Of course the opposite also applies: if they should take the lead they could retreat into defence.

Lecce returned to Serie A after back-to-back promotions under former Leyton Orient coach Fabio Liverani. This season they have performed unusually poorly in corners markets, even allowing for their modest goals record. The only other away game in which they did not lose the corners count was on the first weekend, though that was against surprising opponents: they shared 14 corners equally with Inter.

But last season in Serie B Lecce’s corners stats were perfectly consistent with the goals they scored and conceded. Only this season have they diverged.

What has happened has happened and should be taken into account, along with the possibility that it could start to change again today. By any reckoning the right odds for Lecce to take most corners at Sassuolo would be bigger than 3-1, but it is arguable that they should not be quite as big as 15-2.

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