James Milton: Swerve short prices about clean sweeps and enjoy group-stage shocks

Gary Lineker famously declared that "football is a simple game – 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end the Germans always win".

Lineker's quote could be updated to reflect the dominance of Manchester City in the Premier League or Real Madrid's extraordinary run of Champions League success but international football, thankfully, still has the capacity to surprise.

Wales, gloriously, reached the Euro 2016 semi-finals, Denmark followed suit at Euro 2020 and Morocco knocked out Spain and Portugal on their way to the last four of the 2022 World Cup.

Croatia, with a population of less than four million, made the 2018 World Cup final and finished third in 2022 while 100-1 shots Greece triumphed at Euro 2004.

But what can we learn from these heroic underdog feats of years gone by? 'Expect the unexpected' is not the most useful piece of betting advice – it's in a similar vein to those horoscope columns warning readers to expect a change in their professional or personal lives, not necessarily for the better, on a day ending with the letter 'Y'.

One specific Euro 2024 betting angle that I aim to swerve is backing short-priced group favourites to win all three of their matches.

International teams will never be as relentlessly efficient as top club sides, no matter how shrewd their manager is or how talented and tactically flexible their players are.  

They are, by their nature, a disparate bunch of footballers, often scattered across different domestic leagues. On paper, perhaps, they should outclass their group rivals but – just as when you back a horse to win by five or more lengths at boosted odds – it doesn't usually work out that way.

A national team's back four may have to be hastily cobbled together while their creative midfielders and strikers don't have the same telepathic understanding developed by long-time club teammates. 

A lack of preparation time, plus the inevitable fatigue felt by players after hectic club seasons, may well blunt the sharpness of the fancied contenders at the Euros and it is easy for punters to overrate the chances of top teams winning every group game.  

Since the European Championship finals were expanded to 24 teams in 2016, only three group winners – Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands – have qualified with the maximum haul of nine points.

Those clean sweeps all occurred at Euro 2020, where Italy benefited from playing their three group games at Rome's Stadio Olimpico and the Netherlands also enjoyed home advantage, beating Ukraine, Austria and North Macedonia at Amsterdam's Johan Cruyff Arena.

None of the eight section winners at the 2022 World Cup claimed nine points and only three – the Netherlands, England and surprise Group F winners Morocco – picked up seven.

The Dutch dropped points in a 1-1 draw with Ecuador and the Three Lions, having put six goals past Iran on matchday one, were held to a listless 0-0 draw by the USA in their second game.

Argentina's path to World Cup glory began with a 2-1 defeat to Saudi Arabia while France, Brazil and Portugal all won their first two matches to seal qualification before losing their third fixtures against Tunisia, Cameroon and South Korea.

The potential for dead rubbers on matchday three is another reason to tread carefully when betting on the group stage. Teams do not need to win every game in order to be crowned champions. Progressing to the next round is the only thing that matters and, at any tournament, there will be shock results.

As for pinpointing where exactly those shocks will come this summer, all I can say is that they are likely to involve a European team playing at a stadium in Germany. On a day ending with the letter 'Y'.

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