How EFL playoff first legs alter the chance of qualifying after second legs

One of the biggest influences on the final result is the current score.

The EFL playoff semi-final first legs started on Friday, with three more on Saturday and another two on Sunday. I wrote a piece on Friday with a lot about semi-finals across both legs. Now, I want to look at how scores in first legs affect the chance of progressing after second legs. A lot of ties will be completed before I write again.

The figures that follow cover the last 34 seasons – 1988-89 to 2021-22, all those since the present semi-final format was introduced.

The teams playing at home in the second leg finished higher in the regular season and in most cases were at least slightly superior. But the better they did in the first leg the more likely they were to progress after the second leg.

No team qualified after losing a first leg away by three goals or more. No team failed to qualify after winning a first leg away by three goals or more. In all other situations there were some successes and some failures.

Two teams went through after losing a first leg away by two goals – Preston against Torquay in League Two in 1993-94 and Northampton against Bristol Rovers in League One in 1997-98.

Three teams failed to get through after winning a first leg away by two goals – Blackpool against Bradford in League One in 1995-96, Nottingham Forest against Yeovil in League One in 2006-07 and Cheltenham against Northampton in League Two in 2019-20.

The percentages for those and others were as follows: ten per cent of teams qualified after losing away in the first leg by two goals, 43 per cent after losing away in the first leg by one goal, 69 per cent after drawing away in the first leg, 77 per cent after winning away in the first leg by one goal and 83 per cent after winning away in the first leg by two goals.

Change the spectators and you change the stadium

Inter beat Milan 2-0 in a Champions League semi-final first leg on Wednesday. The second leg is next Tuesday in the same stadium, the San Siro. But there will be a difference.

For the first leg Inter were the away team, for the second leg they will be the home team. And that is bad for Milan’s already small chance of reaching the final. The home team are allowed more fans, and that influences outcomes.

I looked up the scores of Milan derbies in Serie A over the last 20 seasons when fans were present. When Inter were the away team they scored 52 per cent of the goals in games, when they were the home team they scored 60 per cent of the goals in games.

In terms of results it went like this. When Inter were the away team they won 32 per cent, drew 26 per cent and lost 42 per cent, when they were the home team they won 63 per cent, drew 16 per cent and lost 21 per cent.

The really unusual thing about a strange day

It was a mad Monday. Three Premier League games and 21 goals.

Leicester lost 5-3 at Fulham, Everton won 5-1 at Brighton and Nottingham Forest won 4-3 home to Southampton.

Leicester players were booed off the pitch by their fans. Everton players were cheered off the pitch by their fans. Forest’s too.

Reports said the results were fully deserved, and gave reasons why. They might have been right. I was working and saw only the second half of Forest v Southampton.

But here is a curious thing. In each game the losers had more expected goals than the winners. There were differences between sources but the ones I checked all had teams the same way round, which was the opposite way round to the result.

Taking into account only the quality of chances, each result was unusual. With the same number and position of shots for and against, I estimate that Everton would win about one game in three, Forest would win and Leicester would lose about one game in six or seven.

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