Villa are clearly on the up but odds oversell the chance of a title miracle

Things I did not expect to be doing this month: assessing Aston Villa’s title chances. But it is a necessary task because, astonishingly, some bookmakers are offering just 40-1 that they will end the season as champions of England for the first time since 1981.

There is still 66-1 available, but even that is a remarkably short price considering they were freely available at 1,000-1 before a ball was kicked and could even have been backed at that price in the market without Manchester City and Liverpool.

Since then, though, they have made a sizzling start, winning all four of their league games and causing their price to tumble to levels that would have been unimaginable when the campaign began.

Having avoided relegation by a solitary point last term, Villa were no bigger than 2-1 to stay up when hostilities resumed and were a top price of 7-1 to finish bottom.

If you still think they will go down you can now have 25-1, just 15 points shorter than their most optimistic title quote.

So what has happened to spark this amazing market move? Four wins from four is the brief answer, but to assess whether this is a freak burst of success that will not last or the opening chapter of a Leicester-style fairytale we need to delve into the detail of those victories.

First, and least impressive, was a 1-0 home win over Sheffield United, who were reduced to ten men after just 12 minutes. It was a nice start for Dean Smith’s side but one that offered no hint that we were looking at potential champions.

The following 3-0 victory at Fulham was better and then came probably the craziest result in the history of the Premier League, that 7-2 thrashing of Liverpool, which preceded a 1-0 success at Leicester.

That stunning start leaves them a point behind leaders Everton with a game in hand, and the unlikely status of eighth favourites for the Premier League title.

There has been some important recruiting at Villa that helps to explain their vastly improved form and has transformed them from a Jack Grealish-led one-man band into a more formidable outfit.

Emiliano Martinez cost the club £17 million, which is far more than he would have had he not been given the chance to keep goal for Arsenal in last season’s FA Cup final, but he is an upgrade, as is £16m right-back Matty Cash.

But it is the arrivals of striker Ollie Watkins and midfielder super-schemer Ross Barkley that have really invigorated Villa.

Barkley is a terrific player who provides opponents with two reasons to worry rather than just Grealish, and the fixtures Villa face between now and Boxing Day give them every encouragement that they can build on their flying start.

Their next ten league assignments feature only one against a member of what is known by some as the big six, and Smith will hope Bertrand Traore, their other major recent signing, can add further attacking power.

However, while this fine old club’s excellent sequence of victories means relegation is a far less likely prospect than it was a month ago, their current title prices are utterly ridiculous and serve merely to exploit those supporters who look back at what Leicester achieved and fantasise about a repeat.

When you see the giants of English football continuing to try to get even richer with their grubby European Super League aspirations it makes you yearn for another uplifting story like the one Leicester provided. But while more people have realised just how sensational Grealish is (even Gareth Southgate might cop on one day), Aston Villa are simply nowhere near good enough to finish the season in top spot.

That is, of course, an extremely obvious statement. But negativity has also been expressed towards Liverpool this week since it came to light the reigning champions will have to do without their inspirational defender Virgil van Dijk for at least six months.

Having been spared much in the way of trauma from either VAR or significant injuries since the start of last season, Jurgen Klopp’s men felt the force of both against Everton on Saturday and they are out to 11-4 as a result, having been odds-on before they were dismantled by Villa.

The dropping of points in both of those games partly explains the drift in their price, but the loss of Van Dijk is a big factor too, with the general view being they are a vastly weaker team without the Dutchman.

Just how much weaker will become apparent in the coming months, but clearly the fact his ACL injury, for which Everton keeper Jordan Pickford preposterously escaped punishment even though the VAR was able to review his reckless challenge at his leisure, took place after the closure of the transfer window is a big headache for Klopp.

Liverpool face 11 Premier League games as well as five Champions League fixtures before Klopp can bring in a new centre-back, and he must hope Joe Gomez and Joel Matip form a strong partnership in that time.

But they will find all opponents emboldened to attack them with much more vigour and confidence than they would have if the Van Dijk wall was still standing in their way, and the only other option beyond gambling with youth is to deploy Fabinho.

With City having suffered their own shock drubbing, at home to Leicester, and five other teams priced between 14-1 and 33-1, it might just be that fears this would be a straight City v Liverpool shootout are premature and we could get a genuinely intriguing battle for the championship this season.

Just don’t expect it to involve Aston Villa.

Unjust Box Office fee is an own goal by Premier League clubs

Charging people to watch Premier League matches that were not originally scheduled to be shown live is not a bad idea. But charging people £14.95 certainly is.

Nothing sums up how out of touch many football clubs and bosses are than the imposition of such a high fee, and the scornful response to it has been fully merited.

Imagine agreeing this and signing it off without anticipating the backlash or the damage it will do in the eyes of those who already pay to watch football on TV and just see this as an act of pure greed.

Whatever they had charged, it was not going to make them fortunes so pitching the price so high was just a foolish PR own goal that will risk customers feeling they are having the mickey taken out of them, particularly those for whom cash for their existing subscriptions is likely to come under pressure as the economic effects of Covid-19 are felt.

What would have been a fair price? While £14.95 is definitely not the correct answer, nor is zero pounds.

Nice though it has been to have been able to watch every Premier League game since lockdown at no extra cost, there was never any responsibility on the league or its two main broadcast partners to continue the service.

When we signed up for Sky and/or BT we knew there would be plenty of Prem games every week that were not part of the deal.

But there is no moral or commercial justification for making the extra fixtures available at such a high price either. At a push you might have said £9.99 takes it somewhere near the point at which it starts to become a value proposition, but I would have thought £7 was around the right mark.

I admit that even north of a tenner, most Premier League fixtures are a far more attractive pay-per-view option than the amount people are somehow willing to shell out to watch boxing, but £14.95 is still far too steep.

It would not be so bad if three pals were able to chip in a fiver each, grab some beers and enjoy the game on the same sofa, but most people are unable to do that due to current restrictions.

It is a sad reflection of the times that people in cities that are not prospering are donating the money they might have spent on watching Premier League matches to food banks.

Their generosity is, of course, admirable but in a developed nation the state should ensure food banks are unnecessary and the organisers of the most popular sporting competition should not be charging £14.95 to watch games on television.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits.

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport